The glass isn't half-full nor half-empty. It's twice as big as it needs to be.

When an "expert" routinely gets answers wrong, they are by definition no longer an expert. I will keep shouting this axiom from the rooftops until it stops being relevant. Journalists need to make it a mantra they repeat everyday. Doesn't matter if they have a PhD next to their name. Doesn't matter if they have a fancy C-suite title. Doesn't matter if they have a fancy government position. Science is fundamentally about using past knowledge to predict future events. An expert is someone who has a good predictive model of the world. Most so-called "experts" are lazy, they reason by analogy, not first-principles. Therefore they keep predicting things wrong. This should immediately disqualify any and all claim to the term "expert", and be booted swiftly from our "expert-class". Yet, they keep getting quoted in the press. Continuing to raise up these voices does immense harm to the commons, and the blame for that is squarely on the shoulders of journalists. Journalists who are too lazy to actually think deeply; instead just appealing to whatever authority their ideological tribe recognizes. Being an expert should be the ultimate meritocracy. Your status as an expert should be directly proportional to the accuracy of your world model. By this definition, most academics and arm-chair commentators are little more than actors playing journalists like fiddles. Expertise is important. Journalism is important. Both soon to be irrelevant due to their own ego and hubris.

If a rising tide lifts all boats, politicians always find a way to steal the water.

When an expert routinely gets answers wrong, they are no longer an expert, by definition.

69 shares of $SPCX Seems like a nice round number?

Predicted Elon would be world’s first paper Trillionaire back in 2014. At the time everyone said I was crazy. To me, was the most self-evident bet I ever made. Onward to the Mars and then the Stars. 🚀

Prediction: More code will be written by AI in next 18 months than all code ever written by humans (from invention of programming in 1960s - 2025). In other words, by end of 2028 *all software* codebases will have been examined (and re-written) by agents.

New trend: MadMaxxing. Add -MAXXING to MAXimum number of adjectives to pump its memetic reach. Get on it now before it’s yesterday’s meme.

I’ve traveled all over the world. If there’s one important thing I learned, it’s that people who wear shoes in the house don’t know how to cook rice.

👀

Amazing how common this experience is. Both things are true: - “Don’t pick stocks” is bad advice - “Pick stocks like a trader” is equally bad advice You won’t ever be good at market analysis unless it’s your full time job. I don’t day trade. I don’t do market analysis. I only buy stocks in companies whose products *I personally use*. If I find value in the companies product, there’s a high probability others like me also find value in that product. If true, then the stock will do well over time. I then plan to hold those stocks long term, and buy more when overall market is down. This is my “many consumers just like me exist” investment philosophy. Is it wise? Not sure. But right now my stock portfolio is up 40% YoY. What index fund can get you that?

P(doom w/ ASI) < P(doom w/o ASI) Neither is 0. Only way off the precipice is through a narrow path.

My 3yo: “Maybe we build a double decker airplane with concrete!”

Remember how GPT 3 was supposed to be too dangerous to open source? Now we have open models 3x as capable running on cheap hardware... and the world didn't end. I think about this daily.

Something I noticed.

Solution: use external smart box like appletv, disable built in WiFi on TV. Don’t even allow software updates.

Children engrained with maximum curiosity and maximum individual agency will be most successful in the coming era. Reality that our current education systems negatively reinforce curiosity and agency should alarm us all.

Evil = Ignorance Power. True origin: a lack of curiosity.

When you realize we have entered the singularity and you are running out of time