Joined December 2010
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7 Dec 2024
#Bitcoin Cycles Timeline. I don't make the rules.
2016-2020
Halving to Peak: 525 days
Peak to Bottom: 364 days
Bottom to Halving 518 days
2020-2024
Halving to Peak: 532 days
Peak to Bottom: 371 days
Bottom to Halving: 532 Days
The next halving date is March 26, 2028. Look how accurately the above timeline would put us at the halving...
Will the pattern continue?
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2h
Bitcoin topped 251 days ago, right on queue for the 4 year cycle.
Yet many crypto influencers still deny the 4 year cycle is real.
7 Dec 2024
#Bitcoin Cycles Timeline. I don't make the rules.
2016-2020
Halving to Peak: 525 days
Peak to Bottom: 364 days
Bottom to Halving 518 days
2020-2024
Halving to Peak: 532 days
Peak to Bottom: 371 days
Bottom to Halving: 532 Days
The next halving date is March 26, 2028. Look how accurately the above timeline would put us at the halving...
Will the pattern continue?
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$MSTR vs $BTC ROI back to ATH
Last cycle, MSTR went up 5x more from bottom to ATH.
Currently, MSTR would need to go up 325% to reach it's ATH, while Bitcoin needs 95%.
Call me crazy, but I'm adding some MSTR at this level for a long term play, just as I added Bitcoin at $60k.
Feb 9
In December 2024, I started charting $MSTR vs Bitcoin.
I showed how MSTR topped 274 days before Bitcoin last cycle. This is one of the variables that guided me to believe we see a Bitcoin top in early October 2025.
MSTR also bottomed about 193 days before Bitcoin last cycle.
It started with a major wick down (red circles) and then chopped sideways, forming its base. The major wick down, coincidentally came at the same time that Bitcoin made its lower low (same as last week).
During that time, Bitcoin chopped sideways/down until it found its bottom 193 days later.
Do you think MSTR has found its floor? Or more blood to go?
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Jun 12
Where did all those $NOW bulls go that were filling the feed 2 weeks ago?
-28% in the past 11 days.
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Jun 12
Money allocation. Bitcoin or $QQQ?
The monthly RSI for the BTC/QQQ pair is sitting at an all time low. Once Bitcoin finds its bottom (if it hasn't already), it will likely out perform the QQQ by a large margin over a 2-3 year window.
May 27
The weekly and monthly RSI for the BTC/QQQ pair have hit historic lows.
If you’re a Bitcoin believer and hold $QQQ, it may be worth researching taking some profits in QQQ and rotating into more Bitcoin.
This doesn’t mean either asset can’t go lower. This is purely a multi-year view.
I expect Bitcoin to meaningfully outperform $QQQ in 2027–2028.
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Jun 11
SpaceX's valuation at IPO will place it in the top 10 companies in the world...yet they make zero profit.
Are you buying at this level?
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Jun 11
So did all that liquidity that was being “used for Space X IPO” suddenly go back into the market because of Trumps tweet?
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Jun 11
PPI highest since November 2022
Act.: 6.5%, Prev.: 5.7%
If you're 40 years old, PPI has only been higher for less than 3 years of your life.
Not. Great.
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Jun 10
And there it is. Another midterm year with a greater than 7% correction after May 1. $QQQ
Apr 24
Midterm Years continued: $SPX and Bitcoin
Since 1978, there has been a 7-30% correction after May 1.
Peaks
1978: September: -14%
1982: May: -14%
1986: July: -10%
1990: July: -20%
1994: August: -7.5%
1998: July: -22%
2002: August: -30%
2006: May: -8%
2010: May: -16%
2014: September: -7%
2018: September: -20%
2022: August: -25%
2026: TBD
This isn't meant to be bearish. This is to show buy opportunities. If you missed the current rally, historical data would show you could get another chance.
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Jun 10
This aged like fine wine.
CPI is now 4.2%, up from 2.4% when I made this post originally.
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Jun 10
CPI data release in 3 hours
Exp: 4.2
Prev: 3.8
37%
< 4.2
26%
4.2
37%
> 4.2
127 votes • Final results
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Jun 9
The table below predicted the Bitcoin top within 1 week.
So far its been accurate in the bear market too. How accurate will it be to the end?
11 Sep 2025
Bitcoin Cycle Lengths
🟩 Bull: Halving to cycle top
🟥 Bear: Cycle top to cycle bottom
🟪 Accumulation: Cycle bottom to halving
Based on the median of the past three cycles, the top would be September 29th. The mean suggests the top has already occurred.
(This is purely using historical data and not taking any macro fundamentals into context)
Is the 4-year cycle still in play?
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May 29
Bitcoin holders are getting exhausted. They're watching AI stocks and the market rip. I've been listening to X Spaces, filled with frustrated long time holders. Look, I get it! I want my Bitcoin holdings to follow the equities market too.
But let me help out. This. Is. Normal.
In 2014, equities rallied for 500 days after Bitcoin topped.
In 2018, equities rallied for 250 days after Bitcoin topped.
In 2022, they topped together.
I think theres a chance Bitcoin will retest the lows, or make a new one, when equities cool off. Yes, this will happen. It doesn't mean crash. Just a normal cool down period.
Bitcoin will thrive and rip faces again, be patient, HODL, stack Sats.
May 9
We're approaching the halfway point of the midterm year. Equities are on absolutely fire while Bitcoin is negative for the year.
Historically, when equities cool off, even if temporarily, Bitcoin tends to follow.
In two of the last 3 midterm years, equities made new ATHs while each cool off period pushed Bitcoin lower.
Stay ready and stack more stats.
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Jun 9
Since this post 2 weeks ago:
-$14,000 Bitcoin price.
New Lows.
Equities -6%.
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Jun 9
"I think theres a chance Bitcoin will retest the lows, or make a new one, when equities cool off. Yes, this will happen. It doesn't mean crash. Just a normal cool down period."
Since this post just 2 weeks ago, Bitcoin went down $14,000 to find a new low, while equities went down 6%. $QQQ
Patience wins.
May 29
Bitcoin holders are getting exhausted. They're watching AI stocks and the market rip. I've been listening to X Spaces, filled with frustrated long time holders. Look, I get it! I want my Bitcoin holdings to follow the equities market too.
But let me help out. This. Is. Normal.
In 2014, equities rallied for 500 days after Bitcoin topped.
In 2018, equities rallied for 250 days after Bitcoin topped.
In 2022, they topped together.
I think theres a chance Bitcoin will retest the lows, or make a new one, when equities cool off. Yes, this will happen. It doesn't mean crash. Just a normal cool down period.
Bitcoin will thrive and rip faces again, be patient, HODL, stack Sats.
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Jun 9
The Bitcoin plan has been simple. Keep it that way.
4 Dec 2025
The Bitcoin plan is simple.
If Bitcoin gets 2 clean weekly closes above and/or a bounce off the the 50w (using it as support), the bull market lives on.
If we get back to the 50w MA and get rejected...bears take a victory lap.
The good news, you don't have to pick a team and stick to it. You can trade the market you're given. Too many people are obsessed with it HAS to be a bull market or bear market.
The 50w MA is currently at $102,350.
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Jun 8
The market is pumping because Trump said "negotiations are proceeding"...
Just hours after Iran and Israel exchanged missiles, even though Trump said "no", and the strait remains closed.
Make it make sense.
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Jun 7
If this is your first bear market...you've had it easy. Anyone telling you "this time is different, is either new or lying".
This is my 4th.
Welcome to the party!
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