Trump coming out to cut the legs out from Warsh's completely neutral first FOMC speech.

FOMC Chair seems like he's having a fairly calming effect on the markets...so far. Sounds like they want to bring the fed's data reporting into the modern age (AI) which may bring more volatility as they make more "real time" decisions.

New FOMC chair already coming out soft by leaving rates unchanged. They need to start hiking rates 25 basis points every FOMC meeting for the rest of the year. Sadly, they won't. Instead, we're going to continue with higher inflation.

Architecture interior design. Wait for the result.

Sounds like a case for regulatory capture? Preventing the hollowing out of dying industries is not the path to an open free society.

This new algorithm for the For YouPage is so obnoxious. Just because I interacted with a post about $ADBE or $spcx does not mean I want to see hundreds of posts from people I don't follow. Time to abandon & use pinned "lists" and take control of your feed.

$spcx next earnings is somewhere around 8/11. Insiders can sell 20% after earnings. If the stock trades at 170.51 or greater for 5 of the 10 days immediately prior that earnings date it unlocks an additional 10% (30% total) eligible to sell. This is critical to understand

These massive sell orders dumping $spcx down to $150 and getting insta bought are quite interesting to watch. This stock is going to be an amazing stock to range trade over the next few years.

Excited to check out @jackschwager latest Market Wizards book. This series might be the best 'series' about trading to ever be written. Can't hardly wait to start it.

Looks like Elon becoming the first trillionaire is going to happen much faster than I thought. I think he was around 300 billion at the time I wrote this invisible X post. He's currently estimated at 971 billion.

Still in 2nd or 3rd inning of AI. So many ways for the little guy to make money off this AI spending. All a guy has to do is pick one

Why does apple insist on making the iPhone so slippery? I would love to eliminate my case, but after q weekend running naked I've dropped my phone more than last 5 years.

Everyone's saying how AI is in bubble, but with the tremendous energy requirements over the next decade it seems like we're still super early. The playing field is shifting, but we're only in 2nd maybe 3rd inning. Large fortunes are still to be made.

HOW TO ABANDON THE PRESENT VALUE FORMULA IN POLITE COMPANY While retail investors are free to completely abandon the present value formula whenever they so desire, professional sell-side research analysts do not have such freedom. The professional standards force those analysts to follow a set of complex rules and social conventions resembling a tea ceremony to do so. The research analyst has a target price that has to be about 15% above the current price. Then he must construct a set of cash flow forecasts, long-term growth forecasts, and discount rates that mechanically justify that target price. In a bubble, the price is unjustifiable, which means that those forecasts must also be unjustifiable, but they must appear on the surface to be as justifiable as possible. Furthermore, the near-term cash flow forecasts must actually be relatively accurate because the reality of those near-term cash flows will, by definition, be revealed in the near term. The two main ways analysts can tune their present value formula to justify the unjustifiable target prices are (1) pushing out the earnings in the multiple and (2) increasing the long-term growth rate. The first method simply says that the front page of the report will not compute multiples based on year 2026 or 2027 earnings, but year 2030 or even year 2040 earnings. This is relatively safe, as both the analyst and the institutional investor listening to the analyst are likely pursuing other career paths by 2040, when those 2040 earnings fall short of the forecasts. The second method is just to increase the terminal value and terminal multiple after the explicit forecast horizon by increasing the long-term growth rate forecast. Owen Lamont has recently written about this, but the observation that the analyst long-term forecasts become unrealistic in a bubble is almost as old as the field of security analysis itself as each analyst covering each stock has to stretch the long-term growth forecast higher and higher. Although some stocks may meet these high long-term growth forecasts, at some point of the bubble they will aggregate for the whole market to a level that is almost certainly impossible for even the godliest Machine God to produce. This observation is also not original but has been made, among other people, by Cliff Asness in his “Bubble Logic” piece. A good proxy for Step 4 of the bubble is to compute the difference between aggregated individual stock analyst long-term growth forecasts and macroeconomic analysts’ long-term GDP growth forecasts. (This may be the sole case in which macroeconomic analysts’ forecasts of anything have any utility.) When the bottom-up LTG aggregated across stocks is unusually high compared to the long-term GDP growth forecast, that is evidence of the professional investors taking the fourth step and abandoning the discipline of the present value formula in a polite way.

After the initial AI goldrush is over (10 to 20 years) it will become near impossible for 1 man to become a billionaire. There's a certain level of 'grey area ' business needs to operate in which will become very difficult to operate in.

Companies like Walmart $wmt seem like a nice safe haven as these tech plays getup in the nosebleeds. These retailers will benefit from reduced tariffs and strong sales on next earnings (pre-war)