The logic is pretty simple - Azir is an auto-attack centric champion already in his trade patterns and he is also a staggered item purchaser, meaning a lot of his things occur at random times due to game flow states. His sand soldiers also apply cull, which allows him to accrue quite a lot of safe eHP in lane, in addition with his fluctuating patch note changes of hp5. In a simple way to explain; if you look deeper into patterns surrounding assumed Azir trades and typical wave base timers you can realize the deficit incurred by cull pre-first item doesn't harm him the way it could harm some champions. In addition to that, there is even likely chances it can close the net difference between himself and the other champion due to increased denial potential of cs and trades.
Super simplified notes:
- Staggered item purchasers without extreme dependence on the completion of the item are better equipped to buy cull first or second.
- Assessing pragmatically how the champion often tends to trade/base at certain waves in various scenarios and comparing that to assumed game scenarios, and then asking more questions.
- Sometimes if done incorrectly the 180 is fake as you might lose out on minions you could've otherwise obtained by having a different combat stat. So essentially, if cull's causes you to do any of the following:
- Lose trades
- Get zoned off the wave
- Miss cs
- Die or back early
then you might not even reach the 100cs cleanly, or you miss out on normal gold/exp from minions you would have farmed w/ a different item. In that case, the promised 180 becomes "fake" — you end up w/ less total gold than if you had bought differently.
So in some cases the 180 could even be an illusion and never a gain, which is fascinating.
The profit only exists if your farming isn't negatively impacted. Choosing Cull can sometimes backfire. The 180 looks real on a spreadsheet but can evaporate in an actual game due to so many different dynamics.
However this last part is so difficult I imagine it not practically be computable in real time by a human player to ever determine when it could happen reducing the EV below 50.
"EV" = Expected Value.
Figuring out exactly when Cull will actually deliver positive EV (vs. when it secretly tanks your lane and makes the 180 illusory) is incredibly complex. It depends on matchup, wave management, enemy jungler pressure and understanding, your own mechanics, etc. A human can't calculate the precise probability/impact in real time during a game. So while the raw math says " 180," could be lost in some cases, the real expected value might drop way below 50/50 (or even negative) in many scenarios — making the awareness decision a bit more muddy. As I finish typing this paragraph I grow excited to talk about something Riot is doing for the first time ever next week w/ the intro of one of the new items, but that'll be next week.
A lot more champions than what currently exist should be buying cull (whether pre-first item or after completion of first item since 2nd item is the fastest secured item in the game and other factors). This includes mages and bruisers, and sometimes even lane enchanters (karma/ivern/lulu). But that's a more difficult discussion that currently I don't care about getting deep into as I'm typing this, rather I'll just throw it out that to mention it's existence and those who could care about it will do so.