Dario Dropped A New Article!! My favorite quotes:
“AI’s scaling laws, which predict an exponential increase in general cognitive capabilities with increasing computing power, now have over a decade of empirical evidence behind them. If these scaling laws continue for only a year or two longer, we are likely to get what I’ve called Powerful AI, or ‘a country of geniuses in a datacenter’.”
“But at the same time we should recognize that there’s a decent possibility that, despite all our efforts, AI still causes significant enduring job loss—and that this may be an intrinsic property of the technology and the way it broadly replicates human cognition.”
“If AI really will soon be ‘a country of geniuses in a datacenter’, or anything remotely close to it, then AI is likely to be the dominant source of military and economic power for any nation.”
“In a virtual country of 100 million geniuses, 10 million could be applied to military strategy, 10 million to drone manufacture, 10 million to weapons R&D, 10 million to intelligence collection and analysis, 10 million to general scientific advancement, and so on.”
Today I'm publishing a new essay, Policy on the AI Exponential. AI is progressing extremely fast—much faster than the policy process was built to handle. The essay lays out where I think the technology is now, and the action needed to close the gap:
darioamodei.com/post/policy-…