just me & my nerdy stuff acc
Joined April 2021
- Tweets 5,927
- Following 498
- Followers 5,593
- Likes 19,089
348 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
30 Nov 2025
The deadly sins
- confirmation bias
- overconfidence
- loss aversion
- sunk cost fallacy
4
10
112
37,776
Deli retweeted
Jun 14
FINFLUENCER CENDERUNG BIKIN FOLLOWERS-NYA RUGI DALAM JANGKA PANJANG?
Research question: Apakah finfluencer Instagram menghasilkan alpha investasi, atau hanya memperkuat noise pasar?
Dataset: 1.056 rekomendasi saham dari 44 finfluencer Instagram di wilayah DACH (Jerman, Austria, Swiss), periode Januari 2019 sampai Oktober 2022.
Temuan utama: Portofolio yang mengikuti rekomendasi finfluencer underperform benchmark hingga minus 12,66% dalam tiga tahun
#RangkumPaper, dengan judul "Amplifying Noise or Delivering Alpha? Performance Evaluation of Finfluencer Stock Recommendations", Kirschbaum et al. (HHL Leipzig), Finance Research Letters, Mei 2026. DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.110150
Shoutout to mas @RashkaLLC untuk temuan papernya 🫡
Thread lengkap 🧵👇
7
18
81
13,173
Deli retweeted
Jun 14
A rebranding coming soon
Stay tune
A collaboration with another community and it's gonna be big
July 2026 📈
Don't miss it!
22
18
107
11,753
Deli retweeted
Weekly recap from our last letter.
What a week it has been.
For the first time since early May, JCI closed the week in positive territory. This wasn't a concentrated move, market participation was broad, with all IDX sub indices printing relatively uniform returns of around 7%.
The week started on a grim note, with Monday delivering JCI’s worst daily performance, -4.52%, since early March. However, the subsequent daily rallies were remarkably strong, strong enough to challenge a deeply bearish outlook. While this price action mirrors the February rally, we might be witnessing a genuine regime change for the JCI. Doesn't mean we are jumping into a buying rampage, but we will outline our updated thesis on the Indonesian market in our next letter.
On the USDIDR front, our position was established below 16,800, and we decided to trim 50% on the final trading day of the week. IndoGB yields continue to move lower, JCI is moving higher, and USDIDR declined 1.78% this week, strongest move in favor of the Rupiah since the rally began.
Given the backdrop, we felt it was appropriate to realize part of the gains. At minimum, the position has served its purpose as a hedge against what the JCI has been offering since February.
As the saying goes: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
#MeridianResearch
Letter #9 is out!
What could go wrong if Indonesia's credit rating gets downgraded? What if it's only a negative outlook? Turns out it is much scarier than what the market perceives.
In this letter, we also discuss MSCI. Indonesia is not out of the woods yet. We look at what Indonesia would face if it is to be downgraded to the Frontier Markets Index. Outflows are written on the wall, but a good precedent could still spark some hope.
Also updated our Elliott Wave count for the big banks $BBCA $BMRI $BBNI $BBRI, and we think dip buying in banks is not promising right now.
Read our latest letter through the link below:
lynk.id/meridian.research
#MeridianResearch
4
31
125
16,250
Deli retweeted
Jun 11
damn...
for the first time in crypto history, you can swap an onchain asset directly for real, tradeable stocks
Solana did it first, again...
Jun 11
SpaceX is going public on Nasdaq… and everywhere else.
$SPCX. Issued by @Backpack Securities.
Coming to @Solana.
Own something.
31
15
167
26,071
Deli retweeted
Jun 10
Setelah dihitung2 dan dipikir2...
Real bottom or ****. No in between.
Leaning toward the latter. Same setup, same situation. Nothing has really changed. BI rate? Was the issue ever about rates in the first place? No?
17
30
313
41,920
Deli retweeted
Jun 10
Coba kita lihat grafik ini, US 2 year yield sudah naik ke level 4.13% - 4.17% di awal Juni 2026. Posisi ini jauh di atas Fed Funds Rate (FFR) yang sekarang ini di kisaran 3.50% - 3.75%. Perbedaan ini mengulang pola tahun 2022, bond market menggambarkan kalau kebijakan The Fed sekarang ini "not tight enough" dan mulai ngelakuin pricing in buat potensi kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut di Q3 atau Q4 tahun ini.
Grafik ini confirm kalau Long Term Real Rates lagi menembus estimasi model HLW The Fed ke level 2%. Ini perubahan fundamental yang menggambarkan kalau market melihat cost of capital di US sudah berubah ke level yang lebih tinggi.
Dengan kepemimpinan The Fed yang sekarang dipegang oleh Kevin Warsh (sejak Mei 2026), market berekspektasi adanya kebijakan yang lebih agresif dalam merespons data ekonomi US yang masih kuat dan angka inflasi yang masih tinggi. Sentimen ini jadi faktor utama yang membuat naik yield di semua US yield curve.
1
8
36
2,531
Deli retweeted
In today's Early Look: "What Crashes We're You Positioning For?"
Which brings me to the Consensus Crash Callers. I'm not suggesting the US Stock Market won't crash. I don't make suggestions. I take timestamped positions.
And if you were looking for crashes last week, the ones we just called in Bitcoin and Indonesia $IDX were evidently a better use of your Short Book than shorting $QQQ at Friday's oversold lows
2
2
21
7,210
Deli retweeted
Jun 9
Banyak yang ribut ngehujat dia karena posisinya.
He shorted $IDX. And he was right.
Sekarang index naik sehari dan everyone back jadi analis. One day does not invalidate a thesis.
Yang bikin saya respect bukan posisi-nya tapi conviction-nya. Out of every market in the world, dia pilih short Indonesia. Ada model di balik itu.
Daripada ngata-ngatain, coba pelajarin model yang dia pakai.
Saya sendiri salah baca situasi ini. Cost me money. Tapi apa saya berhenti belajar? No.
Was my thesis broken? Yes. Was it because of the company? No. The macro ate everything.
Instead of bashing, ask what he saw that you didn’t. That’s the more useful question.
This is what an actual Crash looks like and we remain Short of $IDX
> Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised its base interest rate 25 bps to 5.5%Tuesday in off-cycle decision as it looks to support rupiah, sovereign bond markets. Comes just weeks after it raised by 50 bps to support currency which has reached successive record lows over past two months; sovereign bonds also sold off sharply and equity markets at four-year lows
28
99
570
64,084
Deli retweeted
The first 50 bps hike was quite a surprise, another 25 bps out of thin air was surely a signal of an emergency amid shrinking reserves. In the span of three weeks, we’ve hiked 75 bps, and the market is already starting to price in another 25 bps.
It was a necessary move, but economic growth will pay the price because the market demands something bigger (iykyk). Banks will likely revise their targets down from double-digit credit growth to the high single digits, and the nation's GDP growth targets will have to be recalibrated to make room for the sake of populist government spending.
This is what an actual Crash looks like and we remain Short of $IDX
> Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised its base interest rate 25 bps to 5.5%Tuesday in off-cycle decision as it looks to support rupiah, sovereign bond markets. Comes just weeks after it raised by 50 bps to support currency which has reached successive record lows over past two months; sovereign bonds also sold off sharply and equity markets at four-year lows
8
28
132
18,603
Deli retweeted
KOSPI ambrol -15% dari puncaknya di Juni, mendekati territory bear market.
Di pembukaan Senin, indeks langsung crash -8,8%, memicu circuit breaker yang menghentikan perdagangan selama 20 menit.
Samsung Electronics turun hingga -11% dan SK Hynix -10%, dua saham yang bersama-sama menguasai sekitar 54% dari total bobot KOSPI.
Yang memperparah situasi, margin debt di Korea mencapai rekor 38 triliun won per akhir Mei.
Investor ritel yang selama 21 sesi berturut-turut menyerap seluruh penjualan asing kini menghadapi kerugian besar pada posisi berleverage mereka.
2
10
1,128
Deli retweeted
Jun 8
Presiden SBY: kami berhasil melalui Great Financial Crisis 2008-2009 dan Taper Tantrum 2013 dengan cukup baik
Presiden Jokowi: kami berhasil melalui Trade War 2018 dan Covid Crisis 2020 dengan cukup baik
Presiden Prabowo: GW YANG BIKIN KRISISNYA AJG AWOKWOKWOKWOK
63
2,131
7,272
130,945
Deli retweeted
Nyok, I'll Start
15 Years Finance Karir belon pernah liat Tail se Tail Tail nya Event kaya gini
So i will put 20 Years into Context:
TLKM's LTM shareholder yield stands at 9.91% Plus Buyback jadi Dobel Digit Yield. A -6.91σ move in a high-yield, cash-generative SOE doesnt just happen without Extraordinaire Trigger.
Today is a once in 20 year event empirically it is the single worst day in TLKM's entire listed history on this dataset, exceeding the GFC peak by 4.6 percentage points.
Fat tails real and material. Excess kurtosis of 2.90 confirms TLKM's return distribution has significantly fatter tails than a normal distribution. Even so, today -14.49% sits beyond empirical 99.9th percentile (-9.08%) Outlier diantara Outlier.
Dan triggernya apa Bos ?
Stupidity Infinity
7
42
216
32,023
Deli retweeted
Jun 7
ini berarti $EIDO risk to rewardnya sangat menarik karena performanya paling buruk, artinya capital will rotate to IDX soon melihat upside yg sangat besar
ha ha ha ha ha….
Jun 7
$EWY = iShares MSCI South Korea ETF
$EWT = iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF
$INDA = iShares MSCI India ETF
$EWM = iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF
$VNM = VanEck Vietnam ETF
$THD = iShares MSCI Thailand ETF
$MCHI = iShares MSCI China ETF
$EIDO = iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF
Kinerja delapan ETF negara emerging market Asia yang sebagian besar melacak indeks MSCI untuk ekuitas large-mid cap di masing-masing negara. ETF-ETF tersebut memberikan eksposur langsung ke pasar saham Korea Selatan, Taiwan, India, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Indonesia, dan Vietnam.
Chart merupakan periode 5 tahun ke belakang memperlihatkan pergerakan harga yang dinormalisasi dalam % gain, sehingga bisa dibandingkan antar ETF.
Kinerja Korea Selatan ($EWY) paling menonjol dengan return kumulatif 86,77%. Setelah bergerak sideways dan sempat negatif hingga akhir 2025, garis biru EWY melonjak tajam pada 2026. Lonjakan ini didorong oleh boom sektor semikonduktor dan teknologi global yang menguntungkan raksasa Korea seperti Samsung Electronics dan SK Hynix di tengah gelombang permintaandari sektor AI.
Sebaliknya, kinerja Indonesia ($EIDO) paling lemah dengan penurunan -50,11%. Garis merah EIDO terus meluncur turun secara konsisten sejak 2022 dan semakin dalam pada 2026, jauh tertinggal dibandingkan negara-negara Asia lain yang lebih berorientasi teknologi.
Penurunan ini mencerminkan tantangan struktural pasar Indonesia, bisa disebabkan ketergantungan pada komoditas, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik, serta kurangnya katalis sektor teknologi yang kuat seperti yang dialami Korea Selatan dan Taiwan.
7
5
78
10,667
Deli retweeted
Jun 8
Today marks my first banking DCA in quite a while.
At this point, you’d think we’re pricing in the end of banking as a business.
Last time I checked, “they” still need money. Probably in 2029 too. IYKWIM😉
5
7
106
59,030
Deli retweeted
Jun 7
One of my role model when it comes to business and how to live life properly. Eyang Tuti Hadiputranto.
One of the wisest and most hardworking person I’ve ever met. Owe so many things to her. Upmost respect for her 🫡
2
9
152
10,719
Deli retweeted
Sesi 18/20 dari rangkaian Kelas Edukasi PGK 2026 #PGKStrikeAgain
Analisa Transaksi sebagai Penutup Materi dari Tuan Muda @dojjunn.
Sisa seminggu lagi sebelum closingan🥹
4
10
34
7,487
Deli retweeted
Sesi 17/20 Kelas Edukasi PGK 2026 #PGKStrikeAgain
Kali ini bersama Pak Pur @0xJrWolfftorger, bukan ̶M̶e̶n̶k̶e̶u̶ Asbun itu ya.
Market boleh junam, semangat untuk tetap tumbuh jangan pernah padam 🔥
6
7
32
7,363
Jun 6
Good read
13
1,034
Deli retweeted
Last day untuk daftar ya guyss!!
Untuk yg tidak bisa hadir, kami sediakan record untuk diakses pendaftar
See u in class 💙
📌 Register here: bit.ly/NIFIXHandiErawan
May 27
#NiFiBerbagi is Back with ko @handierawan ‼️
Kali ini kita bakalan bahas market outlook dari point of view ko Handi setelah banyak kebijakan baru & MSCI
Apakah market beneran bottom atau enggak ya?
Semuanya bakal dibahas di sini 😃✌️
Link to register: bit.ly/NIFIXHandiErawan
1
4
5
2,818