Lots of misinformation out there (go figure).
I am not short/bearish
$ABVX at all.
Article 1 (July 2025) BUY @ $68/share (immediately after P3 UC induction data)
Article 2 (January 2026) BUY @ $118/share (amid M&A rumors)
"Whether the company is acquired or not, investors have a lot of catalysts to look forward to this year. Bear in mind that its stock is likely already priced for some M&A premium. So I would be wary of investing in the stock with the sole expectation that it will be acquired. Rather, I would keep the focus on obefazimod and the multi-billion dollar opportunity in UC and Crohn's disease."
Article 3 (March 2026) downgrade to HOLD @ $110.70
"Still, I remain very optimistic about the long-term prospects of obefazimod in UC and CD. But I’m in favor of trimming the position ahead of Phase 2 CD and Phase 3 UC data later this year, as expectations are clearly very high."
Article 4 (June 2026) maintain HOLD @ $85/share
"Notice that I did not, in any way, penalize obefazimod for malignancy concerns. As of right now, I don't think this is something that merits a model adjustment (e.g., in peak share assumption).
Abivax’s price drop following maintenance data likely reflects a faded M&A "perfection" premium. Obefazimod is no longer viewed as a flawless drug with placebo-like safety. The "malignancy conundrum" is an overhang that could continue to rear its ugly head in Phase 2b Crohn’s data next year and/or during the ulcerative colitis regulatory review later this year.
The biggest issue, in my view, was leading into maintenance data: ABVX's price. Before the results came out, Abivax's shares were trading over $120. But if you looked at my analysis from March, my fair value per share of Abivax was in the low 90s (with generous assumptions). That's the problem if you go into these data events without any context on what the valuation implies about market expectations."