Joined December 2020
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$qure, this is huge. Senator Ron Johnson launched investigations into FDA per Bloomberg. MM could be questioned at senator hearing. MM must go.
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$abvx I am bearish on both efficacy and safety.
Lots of misinformation out there (go figure). I am not short/bearish $ABVX at all. Article 1 (July 2025) BUY @ $68/share (immediately after P3 UC induction data) Article 2 (January 2026) BUY @ $118/share (amid M&A rumors) "Whether the company is acquired or not, investors have a lot of catalysts to look forward to this year. Bear in mind that its stock is likely already priced for some M&A premium. So I would be wary of investing in the stock with the sole expectation that it will be acquired. Rather, I would keep the focus on obefazimod and the multi-billion dollar opportunity in UC and Crohn's disease." Article 3 (March 2026) downgrade to HOLD @ $110.70 "Still, I remain very optimistic about the long-term prospects of obefazimod in UC and CD. But I’m in favor of trimming the position ahead of Phase 2 CD and Phase 3 UC data later this year, as expectations are clearly very high." Article 4 (June 2026) maintain HOLD @ $85/share "Notice that I did not, in any way, penalize obefazimod for malignancy concerns. As of right now, I don't think this is something that merits a model adjustment (e.g., in peak share assumption). Abivax’s price drop following maintenance data likely reflects a faded M&A "perfection" premium. Obefazimod is no longer viewed as a flawless drug with placebo-like safety. The "malignancy conundrum" is an overhang that could continue to rear its ugly head in Phase 2b Crohn’s data next year and/or during the ulcerative colitis regulatory review later this year. The biggest issue, in my view, was leading into maintenance data: ABVX's price. Before the results came out, Abivax's shares were trading over $120. But if you looked at my analysis from March, my fair value per share of Abivax was in the low 90s (with generous assumptions). That's the problem if you go into these data events without any context on what the valuation implies about market expectations."
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One by one ALMOST all reversed by the current FDA. Way to go to restore trust
NEW: The FDA approved Sanofi's type 1 diabetes drug that was selected for the Commissioner's National Priority Review program. Staff and former CDER director Tracy Beth Høeg had previously disagreed on the approval. statnews.com/2026/06/13/tepl…
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$abvx don’t want to scare bulls because it makes my puts expensive. But FDA does not approve drugs based on pooled primary endpoints. Hope you can pump it back to $120. My puts will worth more than x5,000%.
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Could $spcx settle day 1 trading in the mid $120 range?
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$smmt verdict reached post ASCO. Don’t forget MRK, PFE, BMY etc spent multi billions on these bispecifics.
$smmt, jury is still out.
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$insm almost certain this will drop below $80. More down side to $abvx, $nktr, $celc, $prax, $cogt, $rvmd in the next 6 m.
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Another recent reversal example. $bhvn, $qure
The FDA rejected bitopertin in February amid reports of skepticism from former CBER director Vinay Prasad, who has since departed the agency. hubs.li/Q04kQvWZ0
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I do, but won’t recommend chasing. Co’s competency is questionable.
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$rvmd started cracking. I had a decent position but turned bearish recently.
Next put option play is $rvmd, timing post approval.
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$abvx, $nktr too many people paying attention to my warnings now that negatively impacted my put options strategy. My target: $nktr low $30. $abvx $35-40. I hope they pump and I can buy more puts at pennies. They are not cheap anymore.
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$abvx only deployed 10% of my put profits last week back to put @106-108, thought it might bounce a bit more but… still target $35-40 in 6m.
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100% out of $insm (90% out late last year), it was the 10% position holding into May earning gave me the signal and confidence to place puts on some of the high flying bios I already tweeted about. If $insm is back below $80 this year, I will start building a big position again.
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Booked most profits from my bio put options but look for another entry point targeting the ones I have already highlighted with $xbi down to $100-110 level later this year.
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Another way to interpret Trump’s AI investment: open AI weakness!
Absolutely brutal day for AI fantasies: Nvidia $NVDA: down 6.2% Broadcom $AVGO: down 7.92% Coreweave $CRWV: down 7.07% Nebius $NBIS: down 12.27% Oracle $ORCL: down 9.59% Worst of all? OpenAI is rumored to be looking for government to invest, a huge sign of weakness. Less than 24 hours after the S&P said no to fast-tracking, things are looking very different.
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canoebrookbl retweeted
Jun 6
Could Americans Build Wealth Through AI? Why Trump May Be Considering Equity-Sharing Scheme go.forbes.com/nj_fty
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heavy recruitment toward Eastern European centers artificially depresses the background rate for malignancies. it sometimes creates a variance when the drug is later rolled out into US, W EU where patients are older, have longer-standing disease, and possess heavier pre-treatment
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Next put option play is $rvmd, timing post approval.
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$celc, $prax, $cogt made significant profits on put options since I warned in early May. Sold half positions today and will hold for further direction.
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Deserves a read.
The FDA must provide consistent and predictable regulatory frameworks if the U.S. is to maintain its leadership in gene therapy, one of the most consequential therapeutic fields of our generation. hubs.li/Q04kgFSv0
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