🩸 THE SAYLOR ENDGAME?
My thoughts, not financial advice blah blah.
$MSTR holds 843,706 BTC at a $75,700 avg. Bitcoin is tanking well below it. The clock has started.
📉 NOV 2026 — BTC bottoms ~$45K
The multi-year log-support. Every cycle low since 2011 points here. Strategy sits ~$26B underwater.
⚠️ ALREADY BROKEN — mNAV 0.64
The stock trades BELOW the BTC it owns. The flywheel (issue shares high → buy BTC) now runs in reverse. Every raise destroys value.
🔥 THROUGH 2027 — the reserve bleeds
~$1B/yr in preferred dividends. A $2.25B war chest. No accretive equity left.
🎯 MARCH 2028 — they call time
Reserve drained. Dividend cut, or the first large BTC sale to pay bills. The white flag.
⏳ SEPT 15, 2028 — the cliff
Convertibles mature. Stock dies, conversion's worthless. Pay cash or refinance into the void.
The ONE thing that saves him: BTC rips off the 2026 low and drags mNAV back over 1. 🚀
Every prior cycle, it did. This time? 👀