an investment thesis without numbers is just a pre-written obituary. cultivating @sandboxtreecap

Joined May 2025
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22 Nov 2025
I would like to coin the term PPP: principal protected ponzi; the worst that can happen to you is you get your money back at a date you decide (no time rug). gov proposal just went live, things moving faster than expected tbh OHM CDs launching in ~1wk only $1m cap to start which will likely get instafilled, then a short capped rollout before opening the floodgates good chance for everyone to watch the system working before being able to ape properly reminder: you deposit USDS, get OHM calls which you can convert any time, protocol uses the sUSDS yield to buy and burn, send OHM up, make your calls worth more something to think about for any of you second order thinkers: if you see someone deposit $100m of deposits which means $4.5m/yr annualized buyback and burns, are you more or less likely to then deposit to CDs yourself? you deposit, and the next guy sees even more programmatic buy pressure incoming, maybe now it's up to $6m/yr. are they now more or less likely to also deposit? yes this is all pure financial engineering, the token is the product, but do you want to play the game?
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PSA for GNO holders, the promised redemption opportunity looks inbound!
Following the discussion around GIP-150, we came to the table with Gnosis team and put together a one-time pro-rata treasury redemption proposal, now live on the forum. Credit to @StefanDGeorge, who engaged constructively throughout. The result is a simple, fair, and reliable mechanism: liquid assets distributed in kind at NAV, ecosystem tokens like COW, SAFE, and HOPR passed through directly, redeemed GNO permanently removed from circulation. That burn matters for holders who stay. Every redeemed GNO is removed for good, so non-participants see their pro-rata claim on the treasury rise. This isn't a treasury drain, it's a clean choice that leaves stayers better off. GnosisDAO is at a turning point. The team increasingly recognizes that DAO funding can't be taken for granted without prioritizing profitability and adapting the cost structure to market realities. The recent economic cases shared for the three core business lines, Chain, Pay, and App, are a step in the right direction. GIP-150 made one thing clear: a meaningful base of holders wanted the option to realize their pro-rata share of the treasury rather than wait on a discount that keeps widening. This proposal delivers that option. With the next Gnosis Ltd funding round around the corner, this is the founding team showing they are listening to tokenholders, and giving holders a clean choice: double down on their conviction, or exit at fair value. Full proposal and worked example here: forum.gnosis.io/t/gip-xxx-sh…
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fwiw to clarify, not fudding at all and genuinely confused, i own what used to be a huge bag of $ENA held through a monumental drawdown and no plans to sell it probably the best ability to execute on a goal they set as priority in the entire space (morpho recently starting to show signs of the same killer instincts) just very odd that so much of the supply can be taken out of circ and future unlocks yet it still gets beaten harder than the sea of utter dogshit out there with worse fundamentals, worse unlocks, etc. maybe naive but i refuse to believe that a team that has solved far more difficult problems cannot solve the token problem. blind faith until further notice
$ENA DAT bought large chunk of supply, inc. removing a lot of the forward investor unlocks. coinbase bought open market Janus Henderson bought open market (always possibility they only bought $100k each but let's assume they bought something half decent) NEW LOWS, AGGRESSIVE SELLING RELATIVE TO REST OF MARKET ??? WHO STILL HAS FLOAT LEFT TO DUMP ON MY HEAD SO HARD AAAAAAA
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$ENA DAT bought large chunk of supply, inc. removing a lot of the forward investor unlocks. coinbase bought open market Janus Henderson bought open market (always possibility they only bought $100k each but let's assume they bought something half decent) NEW LOWS, AGGRESSIVE SELLING RELATIVE TO REST OF MARKET ??? WHO STILL HAS FLOAT LEFT TO DUMP ON MY HEAD SO HARD AAAAAAA
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raising $100b at $2T valuation
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is it just me or is someone knife catching ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 vs other alts why
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>eventually the price bottoms and all this dcaing down pays off >how much further can it go before relief arrives

ALT Ritz Balls Tonic GIF

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disappointed to see the @gnosispay exploit happening, especially as it's @gnosis_ flagship product and a lot of users will flee and there'll be friction to get them back in. obviously I'm a very large GNO holder so have financial interest here and watching keenly. lots of implications here for GNO holders and the wider conversations about DAO/NAV/risk of retained capital saved for another day, but today I have to say I'm overwhelmingly impressed by the crisis management from the gnosis team. looks to me on first view that the damage has been really quite contained because of a fast technical response. same happened during the balancer exploit. despite fundamental disagreements on other fronts, this has been really top tier. 👏
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a third party proposed increasing the Olympus CDs cap to $60mil with a $5mil/day target proposer funded directly from large wallet that recently bought $4m of OHM on open market, so clearly wants exposure. reminder: deposits to CDs have all yield go to buying back and burning OHM => makes the CDs more likely to convert profitably => new deposits to CDs higher EV => positive feedback loop $50m of hypothetical CDs (idk how much they want in reality) = extra $5.5m/yr annualized buybacks just from the CDs if they don't convert, free $5.5m of buybacks and protocol gives nothing back in exchange, win. if they do convert, backing goes 10%, everyone can borrow 10% more per OHM => hOHM does another $15m in OHM purchases over the following yr, which... makes it more attractive for someone to ape another $50m into CDs and start it all over again (idk if the proposer will ape 50mil or anything at all, but seems odd to propose this if you didn't want to use it)
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Gnosis Ltd employees trying to make a big statement around large independent GNO holders being happy with the status quo & spending. ty @arkham for the easy layup here
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update on GNO vote didn't pass, but the issue is stark and unavoidable for leadership. bruteforcing stuff with their tokens with a dual role of leadership AND largest tokenholders works once for 'defensive' framing (although totally disagree ofc). however, continuing to do so - especially if it moves to bruteforcing spending - would really throw the idea that Gnosis Ltd is independent to the DAO into problematic territory (and it is required to be)... will give a week of cooldown and hopefully engagement before initiating a new proposal.
Gnosis GIP-150 failed 28/72. Strip out Gnosis Ltd leadership's votes and it flips to 78% in favour. Non-team holders want a fair exit and an answer on the NAV discount. Leadership's response: maybe more spending, no exit. Longer version: GIP-150 did not pass. The final vote was 28% in favour, 72% against. Excluding Gnosis Ltd leadership’s tokens shifts the result to 78% in favour. Their personally held tokens are legitimate, circulating, and rightly count. It is only the Ltd-held GNO that we categorically reject as circulating until it is deployed on endeavours generating greater than 1x ROI. This breakdown matters because it makes a structural problem unavoidable. The same three individuals are Gnosis Ltd cofounders, Ltd executives, and as co-founders of Gnosis, the largest individual GNO holders. They are funded by the DAO, operate the entities receiving DAO funding, and hold the voting power that decides whether that funding continues. Their personal token votes are not cast as independent tokenholders weighing a proposal on the merits; they are cast in alignment with their roles as cofounders and directors of the entity the proposal affects. When the votes attributable to that concentration are removed, the remaining holders speak clearly: 78% in favour of a fair exit and an honest answer to the discount to NAV. What is currently being represented as “the DAO’s view” is in substance the founders’ view, voted through by founders, on a proposal that constrained the founders’ own operational latitude. That is not a decentralized DAO. The substance of the result is unambiguous regardless of how one feels about the specific mechanism. There is clear and undeniable support among GNO holders outside of Gnosis Ltd leadership for meaningful change, along with a mandate to prioritise trading above true NAV at the bare minimum and providing a fair exit mechanism for those unwilling to remain through another pivot. A protective mechanism for those willing to give the new vision a chance, without necessarily signing the entire treasury away to spending, should also exist. Both should co-exist, and become part of Gnosis DAO. The response from leadership in the days following the beginning of the vote has been the opposite of what a 78% non-team result calls for. Leadership has verbally floated a meaningfully higher operational spending envelope for the next funding cycle, as well as a hostility towards exploring a solution, while pretending there was interest from third parties to purchase participations in GNO, yet these third parties would not even buy it below NAV. Reading a result in which 78% of non-team holders signalled they want a path to realize NAV as a mandate to ignore an adequate exit solution and increase spending is not a tenable position. It is the precise inverse of what was voted for, and it confirms the concern that motivated this proposal: that operational discretion at Gnosis Ltd is being exercised without regard to the tokenholders the DAO exists to serve. We will give leadership a week to reflect on this striking result and consider whether they genuinely accept its implications. If they do, and wish to engage on shaping the next proposal to protect non-team GNO holders, we are ready to work with them. If leadership continues to disregard the outcome, we will have no choice but to bring forward a further proposal without their input. We trust that there will be no additional spending bruteforced through by these founder-held tokens, against the spirit of a decentralized DAO. Defensive voting with 385k GNO over disagreements on mechanism is one thing. Using that same concentration to force non-consensual spending increases against a vote that just produced a 78% non-team signal for value return is quite another, and would be impossible to reconcile with any claim that this is a tokenholder-governed organization. We look forward to engaging further with GNO holders to shape the proposal. Whether you are a long-term holder or a new holder, please reach out to provide input.
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Incredible scenes yet again - this is precisely the problem here from this team. This is what happened last time in private convos, they committed to changes, a definition of NAV, then 5 mins later turned it on its head and rugged it all. Commitments to progress, almost immediately reneged. 'Signal how much wants an exit option', 'We will make sure nobody will be trapped' and then 'yeah actually I realized nobody will invest more money with us because of our track record but we still want to spend a lot more, so all we can do is match buyers and sellers' - so if no buyers come in then what, we're trapped. We're trading under NAV lmao, there's no long queue of GNO buyers, it's delusion. it's the latest in a long series of rugs. It's insane that they've used 400k of founder-held GNO to vote this proposal down and frame it as a 'supermajority' - without founder tokens it would be 90% voting for it to pass. Don't get me wrong, fully accepting of the result of this vote given founder tokens are circulating - we'll have to come back with another one (and another one until our funds stop being a slush fund) - but to still bury your heads in the sand that you're doing an awful job at managing this situation just exemplifies why it won't go away. now rugging the buybacks too btw! because guess what, he wants to spend MORE than the $30m that was spent with ZERO return.
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"we have interested parties that want to take long term bets on Gnosis" but they refuse to pay >$0 for Gnosis' enterprise value on open market? clearly BS "and EEZ" so this latest 2 month old pivot? great, another grand plan that looks and smells like public goods with 0 hope of an ROI! literally trapping ppl after saying they won't
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will be buying more GNO and put forward a new proposal soon - 'wait this out' isn't going to work here. Further, I think conflicted founders swinging the vote here is one thing (have my own thoughts, but whatever), but swinging the vote when it comes to the next funding proposal to their own org would be something else entirely.. If @StefanDGeorge @tw_tter want to engage on what the next proposal looks like then happy to get something acceptable to both sides passed asap, otherwise we'll probably be posting GIPs 151-200 until GNO holders finally have some financial protection against what is increasingly obvious - that many people see GNO holders' treasury as an infinite pot of cash for their feel good, zero revenue projects. we will get checks and balances introduced, buying more until it's done.
GIP-150 vote is now 54% against after an address that was funded from the Gnosis deployer 9 years ago voted against (probably a founder). If you remove the 2 related parties (Stefan, Gnosis founder and Ltd CTO), the voting is 83% in favour. I took the time to address some of Gnosis Ltd's points below.
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chud.eth retweeted

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so far the main critique has been that people wanting pro-rata share of the treasury (and leaving behind, for free, all the value apparently created by the 175k ETH spent...) are after financial enrichment, extraction, etc. "we can't do this or we'll run out of money to spend on growth" while all product metrics are declining after spending $30m. this criticism is from the ppl who actually spent all the cash in the first place.
The proposal to let GNO holders redeem their pro-rata share of the treasury has passed quorum and is now the most voted proposal ever. For people blessed with the ability to read long texts, you can catch the conversation here: forum.gnosis.io/t/gip-150-sh…
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RT @OlympusDAO: 1/ A deep-dive Q&A on our $155 million buyback program with the @blockchainrptr đź§µ
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Funny, people calling Gnosis "value creators, good business, etc." are completely ignorant to the fact that @gnosisdao raised 250,000E in 2017 and now has <85,000E in assets without any significant ops rev in between. ... while spending a ton of ETH on salaries at the same time!
Funny, people calling Gnosis "communist, a bad business, etc." are completely ignorant to the fact that @gnosisdao raised $12.5M in 2017 and now has >$200M in assets without any fundraise in between. ... while building a ton of value for the industry at the same time!
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incredible how crypto cypherpunks base their entire existence on the unfair, unjust USD system, and then cling to it as benchmark whenever performance issues are raised. You raised ETH, not USD, and destroyed the majority of it. Pivots are still happening, verticals are still being shut down after massive investment, after spending 2/3 of the initial capital. No PMF for core business lines, declining metrics. It's tokenholders' money, stop wasting it.
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normally buybacks are enough; we sat back and watched them happily for months, but then they: - stopped them just to take advantage of other holders in an OTC instead of prioritizing the NAV discount - greedily added non-circ supply to dilute NAV unilaterally so, time to redeem
The proposal to let GNO holders redeem their pro-rata share of the Gnosis DAO treasury is now live. If you hold GNO, vote in favor. snapshot.box/#/s:gnosis.eth/… Here is why it exists: Gnosis Ltd, the operating company led by Gnosis' original cofounders and funded by the DAO treasury, is structurally misaligned with the tokenholders paying for it and is starting to act with hostility against them. Holders expect financially rational decisions and value accrual. What they have received is careless spending, no path nor consideration for profitability, and a management team that hides behind product pivots to mask the absence of product-market fit and stay away from having to make hard decisions. Ten months ago, Gnosis Ltd received $30M in DAO funding under GIP-128. Across the two quarters they disclosed revenue, the total was under $300k. They stopped disclosing it in Q1. Per the latest report, headcount sits at 132. They stopped reporting that too in Q1 (simply because it’s gross). This is not a company built to return value to GNO holders. It is a charity operation funding the founders' vanity projects and a pure cash sink. Pro-rata treasury value per GNO is currently ~$171, roughly 30% above market. That figure excludes the enterprise value of Gnosis Chain and Gnosis Pay, and marks the venture portfolio at the operator's own number, which is almost certainly conservative. The obvious question: why not buybacks? They are part of the treasury manager's mandate. They were on the table. Actually, buybacks have been stop-start to accommodate a dual mandate of value accrual to Ltd at the expense of purely focusing on returning to NAV. But this is also when Gnosis Ltd made their move. The treasury manager was ordered to reclassify 250k Ltd-held GNO as circulating supply, with no Snapshot vote, no GIP, no announcement. That single change would cut NAV per GNO by ~16.5% overnight. The implication is that Ltd holds those tokens as a separate beneficial owner with a claim on the treasury. That contradicts the purpose-driven entity structure under which Ltd was restructured in 2025. Those tokens are held on behalf of the DAO. They are not Ltd's to claim against. This proposal exists because the buyback path was poisoned at the source. Redemption gives every holder a way out at real NAV, on terms the operator cannot manipulate.
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