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Precise Technical Analysis BTC 4H Timeframe Current price ≈ $77,450 The overall 4H structure shows a consolidation/correction phase after an impulsive rally that peaked around $82,000-$83,000 (PWH zone). We are currently in a bearish reaction zone since the last swing high, with a loss of momentum visible in recent sessions. 1. Market Structure (4H Market Structure) Current Trend: Short-term bearish (series of lower highs lower lows since the ~$82.8k high). Latest swing: The price broke the Previous Week Low (PWL) and is now testing the 77,000-77,500 zone. Higher Timeframe bias (Daily/Weekly): Still bullish overall (BTC remains above the large monthly order blocks and the 1D MTF imbalance visible on the chart), but we are in a corrective pullback. 2. Key Zones Identified (Order Blocks, Imbalances, EQ) Demand/Bullish Order Blocks (support): Strong zone 76,000-76,800: Large 4H/1D order block (thick green zone) confluence with the 4H EQL. Very high probability of a bullish reaction here. 73,000-74,000 zone: MTF order block 1D imbalance (dark blue zone). This is the "deep discount" if we lose the current support. Zone 71,000 - 72,000: Weaker but still valid structural support. Supply/Bearish Order Blocks (resistance): Zone 79,000 - 80,000: EQH 4H Swept EQH Previous Week High (PWH) nearby. Likely distribution zone. Zone 81,500 - 82,500: PWH last swing high residual imbalance. Main bullish target if a breakout occurs. Imbalances (FVG/MTF Imbalance): MTF Imbalance 1D visible around 77,000 - 78,000 (current price level). The price is filling this imbalance. Once filled, there will be more clarity. Unfilled bullish imbalance around 78,500 - 79,500 (above the EQH). EQH / EQL 4H: EQL ≈ 77,450 - 78,000 (price is currently right there → equilibrium zone). EQH ≈ 79,500 - 80,000 (next strong resistance level). 3. Scenarios & Probabilities: Main Scenario (Bullish - 55-60% probability): Price bounces off the 76,800 - 77,450 cluster (EQL 4H order block). Expectation: Bullish resumption towards 79,500 → 81,000 → 82,500 (PWH). Key Condition: 4H close above 78,200 (EQH) with volume/confluence. Target value: TP1: 79,800 - 80,200 ( 3-4%) TP2: 82,000 - 82,800 ( 6-7%) Extension: 84,000 if we pick up the daily momentum. Alternative Scenario (Bearish - 35-40% probability): Loss of support at 76,800 (EQL OB). Expected outcome: Continuation of the correction towards the next order block at 73,500 - 74,500. Key condition: 4-hour close below 76,500 sweep of the low. Target Value: TP1: 74,800 - 75,200 TP2: 73,000 - 73,500 (very strong confluence) Maximum Risk: 71,000 - 72,000 (last major order block before overall bullish invalidation). Neutral Scenario (Range): The price oscillates between 76,800 and 79,500 (EQL EQH) for 2-4 days → accumulation before a decision. 4. Significant Confluences & Risks: Bullish confluences: Price on EQL 4H order block MTF imbalance being filled still bullish daily structure. Bearish confluences: Series of Lower Highs loss of PWL visible selling pressure on the last leg down. Overall bullish invalidation level: Net loss of 71,000 (weekly pattern change). Bearish invalidation level: Rebound above 80,200 with a strong close. 5. Operational Recommendation: Buy/Long: On a confirmed rebound at 76,800 - 77,200 (stop below 76,400). Sell/Short: On a clear rejection at 79,000 - 79,500 (stop above 80,000). Wait-and-see approach: The most prudent approach at present is to wait for a reaction in the 76,800 - 77,450 cluster. This is the area with the highest probability of a reversal. Summary: We are in a critical 4-hour decision zone. The price is testing an order block, EQL, and MTF imbalance. A rebound here would be very healthy and aligned with the daily/weekly bullish trend. A bearish break would open a deeper correction but would remain within an overall bullish framework as long as we hold above 71-72k.

Pero no politizan el tema, dicen…

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