Hist wave of producer flow (via swap dealer) gave liquidity to specs and capped rally. Now specs stopping out into merchant buying (inventory hedges lifted as we draw stocks). PM buying is constant as long as we draw western commercial storage but not enough to match spec selling

Too much hype too early and now too complacent?

👀

Venezuela: My personal opinion is that what the US did is a good thing. “International law” is not there to protect criminal gangs once they took over countries. Venezuela was already invaded by all types of criminal groups. The Venezuelan people have been hostages for 25 years. There is now hope for freedom for them. There is so much upside for that country and its people if its potential is unleashed. The “special military operation” was a clear success. It was fast with very little collateral damage. Maduro out. Now the big question is who will replace him? Trump says the US will run it until a proper democratic transition can happen. This sounds good. But then he does not support Machado (Nobel peace prize winner for her work promoting democracy in Venezuela, and who won the primary of the opposition in 2023 but then barred to run for president), and I doubt he has much appetite to keep many boots on the ground to make the transition successful. I hope he will go all the way, and not stop too early, so that there could be a real change for the better. It would be good for Venezuelan people, Venezuela, and it would weaken the Russian and Iranian regimes further, and China to some extent too, and many criminal groups. There is more upside than downside. How much upside will depend on how it is executed over time.

Given the global oil OI exploded higher in dec, it’s fair to think mkt is mostly positioned via short spreads/short fp vs long calls. A grind higher with Venz tightening bal met by strong prod flow (selling back end and calls) would hurt most.

Rolling 2m 35dc -15dc vs Brent inverted. The market has decided to play it via the call skew rather than the flat price so far… the skew move is very similar to the move on Russian sanctions expect futures barely moved so far

Explains why he wants lower prices and lower interest rates.. $100m to refi in 2025 and $500m in 2026..

Bessent seeks tax cut as big summer win axios.com/2025/04/05/bessent…

The Non-OPEC Crude Cond ex US production outlook for the next 12 months is kind of surprising looking at the previous trend: 1.4m🛢/d Especially when taking into account the international rig count↘️ peakoilbarrel.com/november-n… x.com/jorge_moj/status/18979…

BREAKING: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith just completely obliterated Trump on his trade war, telling Canadians that Alberta holds a “Trump card” that is could potentially devastate American energy. Trump is losing this trade war.

This is hugely significant. Canada is being pushed into playing its Trump card. Alberta Oil and Gas, Saskatchewan Potash and Uranium, Ontario Nickel, Quebec Hydroelectricity.. the list goeson. Never underestimate the wrath of the Canadian Goose.

On the bright side, no more "OPEC in a corner" comments!

The math is worse if you don’t include transfers to crude oil supply. US crude production NGL adjustment Dec 2023: 20.287 million b/d Dec 2024: 20.303 million b/d Growth of 0.016 million b/d