Everything is on track. The storm is starting to rapidly strengthen east of Virginia Beach and is down to 996mb. Heavier snow is moving up toward Long Island now.
Winds are starting to ramp up at the shoreline, Block Island is now gusting over 30 mph.
The snow is moving back into SNE now. By 9 PM it should be snowing pretty hard across most places as the wind continues to pick up. Things really get cranking around and after midnight. The peak of the blizzard with intense snow and potentially damaging wind gusts is roughly 2am-10am west….and more like 4am into early afternoon east. Snowfall rates of 1-3”/hour and maybe up to 4”/hr are expected. Plows will not be able to keep up. The snow will be blowing everywhere. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly where the extreme bands set up but where they do, is where the highest totals will be.
Let’s broad brush the winds and call it 40-60mph gusts inland, 60-80mph along the shoreline with the higher end of that range in the open exposed direct waterfront areas that typically see the highest gusts during nor’easters. Significant outages expected due to the wind combined with the heavy, wet snow.
Some good news… the worst of the storm will not coincide with the early morning (~3am) astronomically high tide cycle in eastern MA. The coastline will still take a beating, and there will be moderate coastal flooding, but the worst of the storm is during the low tide cycle around 9am.
Pretty much everything I’ve been discussing still stands. Charge your devices! I expect it will be a difficult night to sleep with the roar of the wind.