@colarion profile picture
Colarion @colarion

Investment advisor focused on the financial sector. Posts are not advice. Personal bank writings: fivepoint.substack.com

Joined November 2019
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Another problematic proxy, this one at Capital Bank $CBNK. The board has a reputation for meddling. The shareholders don’t appreciate it. 5mln shares are owned by insiders and 1 by ETFs, suggesting almost every outside shareholder vote went against Whalen.
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Below is the director vote at Coastal $CCB. The market is strongly critiquing the leadership of major owner Hovde, and these are the folks who haven't sold their shares. He also likely got millions of votes from ETFs. Time to get religion on operating leverage.
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There's a guy on $ubstack named Shitty Situations with a banger post for anyone in credit; all the ways people lie to you and credit can blow up in your face. Some of my favorites:
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substack.com/@shittysituatio…
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Warsh: I’d like to reduce the balance sheet. Bond market under the weight of deficits and waste:

ALT Go Ahead GIF
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If Nubank $NU will be paying an effective tax rate of 45%, why are they staying in Brazil?
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Colarion retweeted
The Real Deal
@trdny
May 6
Barry Sternlicht’s Starwood Capital is staring down another massive commercial real estate default. A $265M loan backing 22 of the firm's hotels just hit special servicing. therealdeal.com/national/202…

Starwood faces default on $265M hotel portfolio loan

Barry Sternlicht’s Starwood Capital Group is staring down the barrel of another major commercial real estate default. A $265 million loan taken out in 2018 by a Starwood affiliate against a 22-prop...

therealdeal.com
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Exactly 2 years ago the CEO of Starwood, Barry Sternlicht, predicted regional bank failures “every week”. But looking at the news he should have predicted Starwood defaults every week.
kristen shaughnessy
@kshaughnessy2
May 7
$265 Million Loan Default Anticipated @trdny reports Starwood Capital faces default on a $265M CMBS loan for a 22-hotel portfolio. This follows a similar distressed $577 Million hotel loan that Starwood is resolving via asset sales.
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Colarion retweeted
kristen shaughnessy
@kshaughnessy2
May 7
$265 Million Loan Default Anticipated @trdny reports Starwood Capital faces default on a $265M CMBS loan for a 22-hotel portfolio. This follows a similar distressed $577 Million hotel loan that Starwood is resolving via asset sales.
kristen shaughnessy
@kshaughnessy2
Apr 30
Starwood Gates Redemptions Two Years After Its ‘Not an ATM’ Warning The Financial Times reports Starwood’s big real estate fund - the same one that restricted withdrawals in 2024 - just fully paused most investor cash-outs. Too many people want their money back, interest rates never fell enough, and they don’t want to sell buildings at a loss
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Not advice but $SOUB $BAFN and $MNMB are three bank stocks where I believe the bidside is ignoring important and sobering information.
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Bancorp $TBBK grew their problematic REBL portfolio in 1Q. These are underpriced bridge apartment loans that tend to go bad. As Karen would say “ I need to speak to the manager.”
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Otherwise a 35% ROE speaks to how good the payments business is.
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One day Stilwell will either retire or win the $PFBX proxy contest / lawsuit. And Merchants and Marine $MNMB will be ready to combine its 6% ROE with People’s 6% and create a bigger coastal 6% ROE bank.
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If you have ever been to Pascagoula it is a gritty place where people either work at the Chevron refinery or the Ingalls naval shipbuilding yard. Looks like a lot of alcohol and food stamps being exchanged but America really needs places like this.
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It’s great news that you can now start a bank with $19 million. The old standard of -$35 million was too high in my opinion and it’s hard enough to get going as it is.
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An easy way for public companies to cut millions in expenses is to trim proxies by half. Currently, mgmt releases them to compensation consultants, lawyers and internal teams to spend months of time on low signal storytelling.
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After years of short arming the buyback and carrying 30% capital, Catalyst $CLST makes a large acquisition despite its own stock trading at 78% of tangible book. Observant shareholders would vote against every single director and presumably Stilwell will now run a proxy fight.
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October 2025 5 Points bullet point 2 botched a prediction. I thought consumer lenders like SOFI and UPST could fall 50-75% as private credit quit buying their loans. Upst reached 50% but SOFI only down 40%, too aggressive.
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open.substack.com/pub/fivepo…
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New strategy for smart banks
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