Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities.
Joined March 2014
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Models mixed on hour 360 U.S. heat ridge location.
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Where does upper level heat ridge go by late June? Upper West or North Central U.S.?
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Models debating how much rain Texas sees over next 15 day. Middle-range AIFS ensemble may be best.
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Watching Pacific Northwest heat event for Monday with mid-upper 90s expected in Portland.
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Projected June rainfall trends continue to steer the U.S. corn belt away from ENSO analogs with serious heat/dryness, regardless of occasional model attempts to push that direction. commoditywx.com/news/2026061…
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Models debating heat ridge location for 16-20 day to close out June.
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Sneaky retrograding subtropical heat ridge tries to set up shop in mid-continent by late 11-15 day, but high global wind anomaly may prevent it from sticking around for very long.
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Three days of discomfort for Mid-Atlantic via high dew points and highs in 90s.
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June U.S. CDDs (cooling demand) tracking nearly even with 10-year normal, which is cooler/weaker than 4 of past 5 Junes.
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Brief burst of heat targets East with higher humidity compared to last week with similar 90s highs. Cooler shift arrives by 6-10 day.
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Modeling lost U.S. cooling demand over weekend as we start to see additional atmospheric response to developing strong to super El Niño.
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El Niño-enhanced volatility continues in early meteorological summer as 6-10 day heat gets replaced by another cool push.
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90s return to East Coast late next week, but this time there is higher humidity and higher rain chances.
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Short-lived tropical disturbance may send surge of rain up East Coast by June 15 workweek.
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Models move East hotter in front week and cooler Central to South for second week of medium-range outlook.
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Hotter/drier period for Spain threatens stress on earlier-planted corn. commoditywx.com/news/2026060…
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Eastern cool-down may return by 16-20 day per analog progression and some subseasonal guidance.
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Watching new trough into Midwest by end of 11-15 day, but models may be too fast, given negative GLAAM tendency continuation.
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Another surge of heat for Midwest to East with 80s and 90s for late next week.
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