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JUST IN: Zillow announces that “starter homes” now cost at least $1 million in a record 242 U.S. cities — triple the number in 2020.

The search for a housing recovery continues ... homebuilder sentiment fell in June (consensus was looking for it to remain unchanged) and remains in a downtrend this year

NAHB Housing Market Index 35, Exp 37, Last 37

US consumer spending is losing momentum: The Chicago Fed projects retail and food services sales, excluding autos, fell -0.3% MoM in May. If confirmed, that would be the biggest decline since January 2025 and the 3rd-largest since March 2023. This decrease would follow a 0.7% increase in April and a 1.9% increase in March. After adjusting for inflation, sales are estimated to fall -1.3% in May, the largest monthly drop since at least 2023. That would mark the 7th monthly decline over the last 9 months. American consumers are struggling to keep up with inflation.

Initial jobless claims up to 229k vs. 220k est. & 225k prior; continuing claims at 1.795M vs. 1.785M est. & 1.771M prior … greatest increases in PA ( 5.6k), CA ( 5.3k), & MN ( 5.3k); greatest decreases in TN (-1.1k), OK (-0.5k), & MS (-0.4k)

May PPI #inflation 6.5% y/y vs. 6.4% est. & 5.7% prior (revised down from 6.0%) … core 4.9% y/y vs. 5.4% est. & 4.9% (revised down from 5.2% prior)

CPI 0.5% MoM, Exp. 0.5% CPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI 4.2% YoY, Exp. 4.2% CPI Core 2.9% YoY, Exp.2.9%

I remain bullish, but not with my head buried in the sand. Margin debt looks high. At the moment, investors don't seem afraid of heights...

May @NFIB Small Business Optimism down to 95.3 vs. 96.0 est. & 95.9 prior, lowest since October 2024 ... share of owners expecting better business conditions dipped to 3.0% and has declined every month this year

US tech layoffs are surging: US-based technology employers announced 38,242 job cuts in May, the highest monthly total since August 2024, according to Challenger Gray data. Year-to-date, tech sector job cuts rose 66% YoY, to 123,653, the highest among all sectors, and 3x larger than transportation, the next closest sector. AI was the most cited reason for job cuts for the 3rd consecutive month, with 38,579 cuts attributed to AI in May alone, the highest since Challenger began tracking in 2023. This accounts for 40% of all layoffs announced last month, up from just 7% in January. Year-to-date, AI has been cited in 87,714 job cuts in 2026, or 22% of the total, already surpassing the 54,836 recorded in all of 2025 and 12,742 in 2024. AI continues to reshape the labor market.

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Dollar Index $DXY closes above 100 for the first time in 2 months 📈💵🇺🇸

May nonfarm payrolls 172k vs. 88k est. & 179k in prior month (rev. up from 115k)

US nonfarm payrolls 172K, Exp. 88K, above highest estimate

BREAKING: Broadcom, $AVGO, extends losses to -16% on the day after posting weaker than expected earnings. The stock is set to erase -$350 BILLION today.

.@MBAMortgage mortgage applications for week ended May 29 fell -2.5% vs. -8.5% prior … 30-year mortgage decreased to 6.57% vs. 6.65% prior

PMI Services May Final 50.7, Exp. 51.0

ADP Private Payrolls 122K, Exp. 120K, Last 105K

Potential Stock Market Crash Warning 🚨: The last time the S&P 500 rose as fast as it has over the last 2 months, excluding recessions, was just before 1987 Black Monday 🤯👀

Big JOLTS surprise: Job openings surge to 7.62m, highest since mid-2024, significantly above consensus for 6.87m and above the highest forecast of 7.05m ( 9 std dev surprise!). Openings per unemployed worker above 1 for the first time in almost a year.

Every generational wealth transfer in history created a window. Only the few moved through it... • Farmland in the 1980s (prices dropped 60%, most farmers went bankrupt) • Tech stocks in 2002 (fewer than 1 in 5 Americans owned any stocks at that time) • Real estate after 2008 (home prices down 33%, most people panic-sold while institutions bought) Right now, the opportunity is buying main street businesses from retiring boomers. 2.9 million owners are heading for the exit with no buyer lined up, and $10 trillion in assets behind them. The ones who move in the next 5 years will set up their families for generations….