Four frameworks to read Bitcoin's cycle:
1. KAIROS timing
2. BTC/VIX trendline
3. January Range close
4. Volume profile nodes
One read, every Monday, free. Four years and counting without a missed week.
Get it here: themarketsunplugged.com/lp/c…
A lot of crypto losses don't come from a stolen password.
They come from token approvals: permissions you grant connecting a wallet to a site, letting it move your tokens.
Those stay live after you leave. Review and revoke old ones now and then.
An ETF outflow is not the same as someone selling Bitcoin.
ETF shares are created and redeemed by institutions to match demand. A redemption can reflect that plumbing, not a view on price.
A weekly flow number is a mechanic, not a mood.
Liquidity gets blamed for everything. Worth pinning down.
It's how easily you can buy or sell without moving price.
Deep liquidity absorbs big orders quietly.
Thin liquidity lets small orders swing hard.
That's why quiet weekends often move so much.
A violent move with no news behind it usually has one cause: leverage.
Too many traders borrow into the same bet.
A move against them forces those positions to close.
That selling pushes price the same way, faster.
Banks tokenising shares sounds like it should pump the chain it runs on.
Usually it doesn't.
Putting an asset on-chain uses the rails, not the native token.
The payoff is more activity over time, not an instant bid.
"Everyone I know is buying, but it's not going up."
Both can be true.
Spot buying adds demand slowly.
Weekly price is driven more by leverage and macro flows.
Accumulation sets a floor over months. It rarely brings the fast move people expect.
MVRV-Z sounds technical. The idea is simple.
It compares Bitcoin's price to the average price every coin last moved at.
Then it scales that gap by normal volatility.
That scaling makes real extremes stand out, instead of hiding in the noise.
If long-term holders and companies are buying at record pace, why isn't price moving?
Because steady accumulation happens quietly, inside a range.
Big buyers absorb supply without chasing it.
Price only moves once that supply runs thin.
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Crypto Unplugged | The Markets Unplugged retweeted
🧵 My Bitcoin Barometer scores where $BTC sits in its cycle...one number, 0 to 100, built from on-chain data only...
This week it turned up for the first time since the fall began...
Latest reading is 18.8...
Still in the Bottom zone... ⬇️
#Bitcoin
$BTC ticked green this morning after seven days down...
Fear's still sat at the lows...price did one thing, sentiment hasn't followed it anywhere...
17.9 on the Barometer…Still Bottom...
That only shifts when holders shift...a green Sunday isn't holders shifting...
#Bitcoin
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Crypto Unplugged | The Markets Unplugged retweeted
$BTC Barometer at 16.3...deep Bottom band...same score territory as 2018 and 2022...
Both those lows had real holder surrender showing up in the behaviour underneath...
Deep on the score now...
That same intensity isn't there...yet..
"The harsh truth: 95% of you will never get rich with crypto. Most HODLers are just bagholders in denial, waiting for the next cycle just to break even."
A TMU member. Unpopular opinion. Hard to argue with.
via TMU member
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Crypto Unplugged | The Markets Unplugged retweeted