NFT Chart:
@BoredApeYC
There has been a lot of chatter about BAYC slipping under 5 ETH, so I charted it again to see where we actually stand.
After ApeFest 2024, there was a moment where it looked like the final leg was complete and Major wave 2 had bottomed. Instead, that bounce turned out to be a wave 4 bull trap, and the past year has unfolded as leg C of Major wave 2. Even ApeFest 2025 could not stop the floor from bleeding lower.
Leg C of a Major wave 2 is the knife that cuts through the last hope. It is the stake through the heart of a community. Hopelessness, fear, uncertainty, doubt, complacency, and eventually capitulation. These emotions do not signal failure. They mark bottoms across every market.
Will BAYC recover?
The NFT track record is brutal. Roughly 99 percent never return from their wave 2 collapse. This is not a uniquely NFT problem. Stocks and other assets experience the same pattern. After an impulsive wave 1 and a full ABC corrective wave 2, every asset faces only two paths.
Option 1 is death.
Option 2 is the start of wave 3.
History is full of survivors. Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia. And in crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have all dropped more than 90 percent before launching their next waves. Their wave 3โs were legendary.
The question now is whether one of the strongest NFT brands can do the same. A wave 2 can retrace as much as 99 percent and still leave a valid wave 3 setup as long as the low does not violate the origin of wave 1.
I remain hopeful that Bored Apes can stage a comeback, and if they do, it will be historic. We should all want them to recover because if a brand with this level of head start and resources cannot climb out, the odds get worse for everyone else.
Any KOL bashing
@BoredApeYC or other struggling NFT projects only accelerates the destruction of the NFT sector. But the real question is whether NFTs deserve to live.
A healthy NFT ecosystem needs strong communities and multiple flavors, but it also needs a flagship club like BAYC to survive and prove that NFTs still have a viable path forward. And none of that happens without a roaring crypto market. NFTs are higher risk with lower liquidity, and demand returns only when people feel wealthy again and shift back into risk-on behavior.
That requires Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking to all-time highs and a true alt season that mints new millionaires. In that kind of bull run, which I hope arrives in 2026, projects like Bored Ape Yacht Club will have their best chance to thrive again.
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