Joined July 2015
- Tweets 2,192
- Following 97
- Followers 994
- Likes 717
117 Photos and videos
14 Jun 2022
Lots of chatter this is exactly what's unfolding...supposedly less than 10% to go until mass liquidation cascades
11 May 2022
Another scenario:
There is a unlikely but decent risk (10-20% imo) that things will get much worse from here very quickly
13 May 2022
Crypto as a whole needs to move from "design to succeed" to "design to fail" with clear scenarios that capture the most extreme events possible
If the community works together a list can be generated covering most scenarios and stress testing completed before deployment
13 May 2022
Chainlink pausing the LUNA oracle allowed several attackers to deposit millions of LUNA which is still worth $0.10 according to the Chainlink oracle to borrow all the collateral.
The protocol has been drained before we could pause due to our timelock.
2
7
Crypto Sanity retweeted
13 May 2022
Over *four years* ago I was a research analyst at @scalarcapital.
The Terra / $LUNA deal came across our desk and I was assigned to it because I was the DeFi guy. Here's what I had to say about the project.
How did we allow it to end up like this?
468
3,172
13,675
11 May 2022
Another scenario:
There is a unlikely but decent risk (10-20% imo) that things will get much worse from here very quickly
11 May 2022
So there was a mini-bounce inbetween which delayed us a couple months but potentially we just saw this flushout.
Will it be the last?
2
1
11 May 2022
Once the system is mapped out and the entry points understood, it is trivial to pull off
Ironically the transparent nature of the chain and sharing of positions makes this much easier
1
2
11 May 2022
If this occurs then I hope crypto survives enough to learn from it
Best wishes to everyone and f the psychos, but really the design makes this inevitable
2
11 May 2022
So there was a mini-bounce inbetween which delayed us a couple months but potentially we just saw this flushout.
Will it be the last?
2 Feb 2022
So far pattern from last year is repeating. BTC/ETH fell before alts -> bounce -> alts lead downwards
I think strong chance we get $BTC 28-30kish with alts down a ton, then bounce back to around these current levels before continuing bear at tbd date
2
11 May 2022
Ok just checked and MIM has held. So I will say it's resilient haha
27 Jan 2022
But I'll say this. If it survives $UST-$LUNA deleveraging spiral getting activated (potentially very soon) and Luna plunges 50% or something...with big UST depeg and incredible collateral evaporation
Then I'll be open to saying it's resilient
3
16 Mar 2022
In its own way COVID may alter the course of history as much as the bubonic plague
16 Mar 2022
Don't know what else you guys can ask of me, a single T cell immunologist, in accuracy and foreshadowing
Here are two major things I foreshadowed
I anticipate the loss of Naive T cells here
1/2
16 Mar 2022
Taleb's normal boasting aside, this post succinctly and brilliantly describes how I see reality
Embodying it will make you not only a great investor but a great leader. And shines light on the path toward collective flourishing
medium.com/incerto/the-logic…
1
5
16 Mar 2022
I particularly love the essay tying antifragility with virtue
Many people who "make" money in antifragile ways dismiss the great challenges of our time: climate change, covid, resource constraints, etc although the logic is identical
Taleb is consistent in his evisceration
2