Managing Partner, Arbroath Group, the geopolitical strategy firm. Fmr US Treasury & White House. LeadingThoughts.Substack.com
Joined December 2007
- Tweets 6,594
- Following 989
- Followers 1,721
- Likes 1,442
574 Photos and videos
Christopher Smart, PhD CFA retweeted
Jun 11
Congrats to you and Shahin on a nice and timely piece. I definitely agree with you that the RMB is highly undervalued and that the G7 should put this issue on its agenda.
I also agree that the G7 needs to get its own house in order, and the USA is a huge piece of that.
Jun 11
Shahin Vallee and I have a new piece in Foreign Affairs, arguing that the G7 (and the g7 plus) will only succeed at reducing imbalances if they reinvigorate currency diplomacy & make currency misalignments the center of international economic policy
foreignaffairs.com/china/rea…
1
6
23
14,110
Great to join @NewsNation and @EVargasTV to talk through why the world economy will never again depend on the Strait of Hormuz for 20% of its oil and gas needs.
1
24
As another graduation season closes without an invitation to share my wisdom with the next generation, here’s what I would have said.
open.substack.com/pub/leadin…
1
16
Always a good conversation with @kaileyleinz and @JMathieuReports on the forces behind Friday's hot #jobs report and cool #markets. After weeks (and months) of investors looking through bad news, they are starting to look through the good news. @BloombergTV
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
1
29
My argument on how global markets are already adjusting to life without the Strait in today's The New York Times. #geopolitics #oil #IranWar
nytimes.com/2026/06/04/opini…
2
1
501
Everyone says geopolitical risk is at historic highs. Markets just hit fresh highs anyway. But investors don't always understand how #geopolitics and #markets interact. 1/5
1
125
Globalization is also a shock absorber. Chinese tariffs? Southeast Asia fills the gap. US tears up trade deals? UK and EU accelerate talks with India and LatAm. Even a Hormuz closure triggers a scramble for Canadian, Brazilian and US supply. 4/5
1
56
But the real risk isn't the headline crises. It's the slow burn: ballooning debt, sticky inflation, and political gridlock. Moody's downgraded the US for exactly this reason. That's the story markets will be watching most closely. 5/5
2
42
Following the dizzying shifts in Asian security concerns laid out at the Shangrila Dialogue this weekend, it was great to think through the implications for defense ministers and investors with @cherykang @mandycnbc on @asiasquawkbox
cnb.cx/4u4WFAI
2
4
449
Consider the geopolitical challenges of today’s European leader. A Middle East war you believe to be a mistake is sending another energy shock through your economy. A flood of subsidized manufactured goods from China continues to undermine what’s left of your industrial base. And any future national security plans are caught between a menacing Vladimir Putin and a mercurial Donald Trump.
Then, if you are UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the floor beneath your feet collapses. If you invest in gilts or sterling, so does your portfolio...
2
60
Always good to finish a busy news week with @jmathieureports @kaileyleinz bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
1
1
3
533
This was after a trick question from @JMathieuReports …
May 15
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cannot "credibly" argue for rate cuts "at this stage," says Christopher Smart, managing partner and founder of the Arbroath Group bloom.bg/4wtGMX7
1
2
403
What say you, @Brad_Setser? And to be clear, they would not be allowed to import battery kits.
Shocking proposal in my latest @barronsonline:
If Trump wants to stabilize the relationship with China, relieve the affordability squeeze, and re-energize his electoral base, he should surprise Xi with an offer to open the U.S. market to Chinese cars. The fact is he can either watch as Chinese cars are sold everywhere except America, or he can allow them to be made in America, by Americans.
#Trump #Xi #China
barrons.com/articles/a-china…
1
3
2,774
Shocking proposal in my latest @barronsonline:
If Trump wants to stabilize the relationship with China, relieve the affordability squeeze, and re-energize his electoral base, he should surprise Xi with an offer to open the U.S. market to Chinese cars. The fact is he can either watch as Chinese cars are sold everywhere except America, or he can allow them to be made in America, by Americans.
#Trump #Xi #China
barrons.com/articles/a-china…
3,094
Not Everyone Loves a Parade! open.substack.com/pub/leadin…
49
Not Everyone Loves a Parade!
Ten weeks into the Iran War, the conventional wisdom argues that Putin’s Russia is an unintended winner. But the oil spike only exposed the weakness of the Russian economic engine. The Gulf turmoil has turned into an unexpected boon for Ukrainian diplomacy. And the war’s geopolitical shifts will only drive Putin into even deeper dependence on China’s Xi Jinping.
open.substack.com/pub/leadin…
1
88
51