Head Coach @Zenithsbball | Innovation and development for players and coaches.
Joined April 2011
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May 2
There has been ~ 7000 total playoff games in NBA/ABA history.
Orlando, Houston and Atlanta just accounted for 3 of the top 5 worst offensive halves in NBA history, within a 24 hour time frame.
Houston’s current shooting splits are 27/21/60 and Orlando just finished the second half shooting 10.8% from the field.
We will never see another outlier of basketball this bad in our lifetimes.
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There will be a ton of talk about ‘roster construction’ after this Finals run.
This was the first piece on the shift away from Heliocentric/Big 3’s to what I call prioritized usage. 👇🏼
Like everything else he touches, Brad Stevens was the pioneer of this shift.
28 Jun 2024
'Big 3s' don't work in the NBA. Heatles, Cavs, Phoenix, Clippers, Suns, Philly, Lakers etc. Have all been underwhelming considering expectations. The KD Warriors are the outlier here because of Steph's effectiveness on and off ball.
With the recent OG Anunoby contract, Bridges haul via trade and looming KCP number, it appears teams are realizing the value of PRIORITIZED USAGE.
This means having 1 or 2 ball dominant players who can score and create at all 3 levels with a number of low usage/high impact specialists around them.
Traditional 'big 3' teams have put 3 ball dominant players on the floor together and expected it work. It always digresses to a 'big 2' and counterfeits each player, while simultaneously taking away resources that could be spent complimenting the overall system.
Boston put their philosophy in place, with their non negotiables, and sprinkled in elite specialists around Tatum/Brown to follow their road map.
Those specialists are now costing teams, BIG TIME.
How does this trickle down to lower levels?
Simply put, make an impact without the basketball. There is a handful of Luka's out there and many, many potential KCPs.
Bigs- rim run, protect the rim, navigate screens, set screens, guard multiple positions.
Guards/wings- pressure the basketball without fouling, catch and shoot 3s, deflections, charges, rebound well at the nail.
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The ODDS of the Spurs losing the NBA Finals 4-1, when taking into account the following sequences:
- They held a double digit lead in all 5 games
- Held the lead at some point in the last 2 minutes of every game
- Blew a 29 point half time lead 20 point 4th Q lead
Are ~1 in 250,000. Virtually impossible odds.
*This is using a high P value (early leads in some games), which actually lowered the odds.
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Steph Curry has led his teams to 4 of the last 11 championships as a small guard. Brunson makes it 5 of the last 12. Isiah Thomas went back to back as a small guard.
Too many fans reading the Athletic and taking it as gospel. Creating narratives that never existed in the first place.
A small guard just led the Knicks to the NBA Championship. All the narratives are dead. Jalen Brunson is a basketball savant.
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Basketball is a simple game.
Mitch Johnson over complicated it, the entire series, in three ways:
1. Exotic coverages: Brunson can’t beat you from the mid range, much like Shai couldn’t last series. Way too many traps, matchup zones, blitzes, etc. leading to the Knicks attacking long closeouts all series long.
2. Transition to build the lead, and then walk the ball up the floor and play not to lose, with the lead. There was a clock in every single game of the series where you could see the Spurs shift from fast to slow.
3. The Kornet minutes. Mitch chose a guaranteed negative 10 minutes on a game by game basis versus getting creative with his personnel.
We’ve never a series more negatively impacted by a coaching staff than this Spurs squad in the NBA Finals. And it was all EXTREMELY predictable and preventable.
Mike Brown was INCREDIBLE. No coach more deserving of a title than him.
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The Brunson mid range game will never beat the Spurs (and hasn’t all series). They are loud, aesthetically pleasing, tough buckets that don’t need any attention outside of tipping your cap.
Fun listening to the announcers panic; saying the Spurs need to double. If the Spurs trap Brunson in the second half they will lose the game.
Ironically, if the Spurs had played Jalen straight up all series, they would be up 3-1 and looking to close it out.
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‼️ EMPTY BELOW THE NAIL ‼️
Slice action is really common from the low sideline. But using a DIAMOND TEMPLATE will ‘empty below the nail’ on a slice action, eliminating the help and assuring advantage.
We typically see slice SLOB’s from a 2 guard front, allowing the low man to tag or stunt at the rim.
If the defense SWITCHES this action it creates an organic flex stagger with a ton of slip/curl opportunities.
Real Madrid Low SLOB
Slice | Stagger
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Jun 12
REBOUNDING is the most under taught skill in basketball. It is also an important foundation in the possession battle AND the shot quality battle. O Boards lead to some of the highest PPP in the basketball.
Great rebounders are often associated with a large rebounding radius - the ground they can cover on a rebound.
This is true in college, but in the NBA shrinking the rebounding radius and dominating that space is the key. Shots are much more controlled and predictable and the bodies are much bigger.
At the high school level, the teaching point is being able to read shots. 👇🏼
‘Long shot, long rebound’ is true, but not nearly as much as we assume. 3 point shots are rebounded at 5-8 feet on average. The highest % of rebounds from three come in the short corner. CRITICAL information when teaching rebounding.
Order of operations at lower levels is:
Anticipate the shot, shrink the defensive or offensive rebounding radius by leveraging the opposition away from the rebound, and finishing the board in a QB stance.
Easier said than done, but training FOUR TIERS OF REBOUNDS simplifies and automatics this process.
1. Short and clean
2. Short and dirty
3. Long and clean
4. Long and dirty
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Jun 11
Traditionally, we track gravity assists through double gap creation, playing 4 on 3 (blitz/trap/double spots), and long closeout (> 6 feet) advantage creation.
Offensive rebounding rate is outside the box thinking, which is great, but likely involves too many variables.
Offensive rebound rate in the NBA is ~ 26%. Offensive rebounding leads to ~ 1.20 PPP.
This would mean the league average ‘Kobe Assist %’ is ~ 14% (depending on 3PT rate).
Love the idea of this statistic but curious to see who the league leaders are based off of %. When it’s tracked this way it simply mirrors volume shooters.
Also curious to see the actions that lead to the highest Kobe assist % and if the data differs from traditional doubles.
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Jun 11
The entire 4th quarter for the Spurs falls into the SPECIAL TEAMS category of play. Verbal cue for special teams we use is ‘time and score’. KEEP A GAME CARD.
Three critical special teams errors by the Spurs staff in the 4th. 👇🏼
1. Matchup zone in the 4th. A comeback like that was only possible if the Spurs chose not to play M2M. Mike Brown simply overloaded the strong side of zone and rhe 3 point shot brought them back.
2. Doubling with Fox on the Knicks ATO. Wemby guarding Brunson on the perimeter doesn’t require a double, it requires O Board help with the big pulled 23 feet away from the rim.
3. Dylan Harper as the inbounder with 1.2 seconds left. Play call was great; layup was there and KAT made a great play tipping the inbounds. Harrison Barnes should’ve been the inbounder (height/experience).
The special teams takeaways for coaches at ALL LEVELS:
1. Aggressive coverages increaae variance, this is allows for comebacks at a higher rate. Focusing on limiting SHOT QUALITY is key.
2. ATO coverages are only as good as your offensive rebounding strategy.
3. Experienced play makers in SLOB/BLOB spots in EOG situations.
Tactical adjustments are built into special teams. These adjustments should be practiced, and the details hammered home DAILY.
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Jun 11
Examples of special teams situations:
- up/down 20 in the 4th
- up/down 10 with 5 min left
- up/down 2 possessions with 1 min left
- 2 for 1 ATO in EOG
- full clock ATO in EOG
- under 10 seconds ATO in EOG
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Jun 8
Shooting is the only skill in basketball where 10% deviation from the median puts you at the best or the worst of your class.
10% means JV or Varsity
10% means starter or bench
10% means Juco or D1
10% means drafted or undrafted
10% means All NBA or 6th man
No other skill can be quantified this way.
More importantly, a shooters gravity provides creation without the ball and compounds all skill sets associated with on ball creation.
PRIORITIZE SHOOTING.
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Chris Steed retweeted
Jun 8
NEED A THREE?
Beautiful tag manipulation by Charles Hantoumakos and @CanBball in the u18 Americup Finals.
This a Stack Out into a Spread PnR, with a push, and a perfectly timed Exit Screen that freezes the low man.
This action is extremely effective with A) a dominant big who commands attention in the paint or B) teams who aggressively hedge/tag.
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Jun 6
The causal fans/media are finally starting to understand the power of data. All it took was the big market Knicks to shine a light on it.
Buzzwords like dawg, killer, and hooper are relatable, have broad appeal and they used to signal ‘expertise’.
Analytics/systems/schemes are threatening and narrow because it shatters the dogmas centered around fandom and forces learning to stay relevant.
Mike Brown bringing in a data driven, Princeton (hybrid) based system on offense and analytics based offensive rebounding rules has put the Knicks over the top. It also might be the single biggest leap for ‘analytics’ to date with the mainstream bball community.
Look at how many mid range jumpers the Knicks pass on in this ONE CLIP ALONE.
PLUS here is the data the Knicks system is based on 👇🏼.
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Jun 6
I full expected Mitch Johnson to put Wemby on the block, around four capable shooters, and EMPTY THE HELP.
In an EOG situation, this means that the defense is giving up a wide open 3, or a 1 on 1 on the low block with 7’4.
Obviously Brad Stevens is the best coach in NBA history at EOG/ATO’s but conceptually, there is no way to prevent a quality look WITH an O Board opportunity in this spot.
In this example, Tatum gets a clean look or Al gets a 1 on 1 matchup, and Al is 6’9. 👇🏼
Brad Stevens
EOG | Triangle Flex | Seal
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Jun 6
If Wemby is built like a 🐐 , this loss will motivate him more than a ring will at 22.
- Kobe 4 airballs against the Jazz in 97’.
- Mike game 7 Pistons in 1990’.
- Bron swept by the Spurs in 07’.
- Steph game 7 Clippers in 14’.
Every all time great player has that ‘fork in the road’ moment after adversity. 🍿
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Jun 6
Have to feel for Mitch Johnson and Co. Just horrific all around EOG management/play calling.
- First ATO in a tie ball game is an ISO 20 footer for Wemby
- No TO on a negative numbers situation leading to a TO on the Brunson miss
- Slow developing PnR leading to no second chance opportunity at the buzzer
Positive is he finally stopped putting two on Brunson and they went on a 13-0 run.
Credit to Mike Brown 💯. This has been child’s play for him in the coaching department.
Jun 6
Mitch Johnson making the same mistake he did against Shai - putting 2 on the ball. Like OKC, New York is feasting from 3 and on the offensive glass.
They are nexting actions above the nail and the rotation is too slow.
Been about as ugly as it could get for Mitch Johnson through two games. Really poor half court execution offensively, and not finding any of the adjustments defensively.
Definitely a series he will want back.
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Jun 6
Mitch Johnson making the same mistake he did against Shai - putting 2 on the ball. Like OKC, New York is feasting from 3 and on the offensive glass.
They are nexting actions above the nail and the rotation is too slow.
Been about as ugly as it could get for Mitch Johnson through two games. Really poor half court execution offensively, and not finding any of the adjustments defensively.
Definitely a series he will want back.
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Chris Steed retweeted
Jun 5
‼️ Players need equity on the team beyond performance ‼️
Performance is exhausting IF that’s what defines your self worth.
Humans are happiest when solving problems. Every player on the roster has to feel as though they they are part of the problem solving mechanism.
This is why PLAYER’S LED TEAMS are superior to coach centric teams.
Dynamic CATEGORIES on every roster:
1. High talent/low character - the PROBLEM
2. Low talent/low character - CUT
3. Low talent/high character - CAPTAINS/CONNECTORS
4. High talent/high character - STARS
CATEGORY 3 will lift the floor.
CATEGORY 4 will lift the ceiling. CATEGORY 1 will lift stability.
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