Now comes my third of the the few political posts I will make on social media as Zambia heads to the polls this year. This is food for thought for UPND political strategists. This is not based on any empirical analysis and is mostly opinions.
UPND will likely have an easy path in the 2026 elections. That much appears clear. But what came out from the nomination process was a clear disorganization and signs of discontent among party members who were not adopted as candidates. They may not say that now because of allegiance to the republican president. But serious internal cracks are beginning to form in the UPND. These disagreements are just the beginning. They will intensify as the battle to eventually succeed President HH begins. In fact, the ouster of Garry Nkombo may be an early sign that internal positioning has already started.
Shortly after the elections, key UPND members will begin to openly position themselves for influence ahead of 2031. I think HH already has an idea who may replace him. His philosophy in education is key. Whoever is hoping to get the blessings of the President will more likely be educated, young, visionary and someone who has been with HH for some time.
Some opposition parties seem to understand this reality. Their premature declarations of victory in 2026 may not necessarily reflect real expectations of winning this election. Rather, they appear to be playing the long game. They know they canβt beat this president. They are building local party structures, being visible on the socials, and showing some political relevance now for what could become a far more open and competitive race in 2031.
So UPND strategists need to think long term. HH is clearly a strong candidate. Whoever takes over after him will need to be stronger or else, in 2031 it we be dununa reverse all over again.
PS: As a spectator of UPND politics, a name i will be watching for in the UPND is the Special Assistant (Legal) to the President Christopher Mundia, unless he does not want the top job. He was my junior at Kafue Boys Secondary School but one heck of a debater.