Non-resident Senior Fellow, UNIDIR. Tweets reflect personal views only. Ex head of PRIO (1993-2001), International Alert (2003-2015) & SIPRI (2015-2025).
Joined June 2010
- Tweets 3,516
- Following 258
- Followers 3,687
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348 Photos and videos
Jun 10
Democracy and peace are both at risk. So let's remember that 30-plus years of high-level scholarly research shows democracy is a foundational asset for peace and security.
New research by @WFD_Democracy shows how this works
wfd.org/what-we-do/resources…
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May 26
New US missile strikes on Iran.
As I said a month ago, "All the signs seem to point towards the extended pain of an on-again, off-again war."
dansmithsblog.com/2026/04/21…
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May 23
The #GulfCrisis is now in the space between peace and war. It may exit at any time into war – or, less likely and more slowly, to. a real peace. In the meantime, here is part 3 plus summary of my provisional assessment of gains and losses so far.
dansmithsblog.com/2026/05/22…
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May 21
The Gulf crisis sits in a fragile but slowly expanding space between peace and war. Here is part 2 of my provisional assessment of who has gained and who has lost what so far.
dansmithsblog.com/2026/05/20…
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May 20
The Gulf crisis has entered the space between peace and war. It may exit at any time but I think this is a convenient moment to gauge what has been gained and what has been lost so far.
dansmithsblog.com/2026/05/18…
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May 6
Reported terms of possible Iran-US agreement suggest it would, if it happens,
1 suspend the war rather than end it,
2 confirm Israel & USA achieved nothing
3 benefit Iran’s leaders.
More detail in my latest blog post
dansmithsblog.com/2026/05/06…
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May 4
TACO
May 3
BREAKINGNEWS: US officials claim Trump didn't mean US would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz but guide them to safe passages without any underwater mines.
There is no plans of US ships to enter the Strait of Hormuz according to US officials.
Trump is manipulating the markets. 🚨
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Apr 21
Iran today: In between war and peace lie other options – prolonged truce, proxy warfare, and an on-again, off-again war. Which is most likely the war on Iran by the USA and Israel? My forecast:
dansmithsblog.com/2026/04/21…
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Apr 20
I am delighted and excited to be appointed as Senior Fellow at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (@UNIDIR). Really looking forward to working together with this tremendous team.
unidir.org
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Apr 8
The ceasefire in the US-Israeli war on Iran brings cautious relief. The bombing, the missiles, the destruction and the killing can stop, which is unreservedly good. But ceasefires are tricky things.
dansmithsblog.com/2026/04/08…
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Apr 5
Some pointers are emerging out of the fog created by the jumble of remarks by Trump and others. This is the first of 3 blog posts on them. Covers the US military build-up, the US search for a way out, and the Strait of Hormuz.
dansmithsblog.com/2026/04/04…
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Mar 12
Outcomes of the war on Iran are wholly uncertain. Could include anything from civil war to democratic transition, could destabilise the region, and by driving up oil prices provide the final unanswerable reasons for the green transition. dansmithsblog.com/2026/03/12…
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Mar 11
"This is a difficult time to be talking about disarmament or even arms control."
But it's what I do in this article, linking it world order and ecological security.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
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Mar 1
So Trump has dropped his previous views about regime change. What are the prospects now?
dansmithsblog.com/2026/03/01…
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Jan 5
A future seems to loom before in which the strong do what they can, and the weak do what they must.
My reflections on the Caracas raid – background and implications.
dansmithsblog.com/2026/01/05…
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Jan 3
Precisely!
Jan 3
So when China launches a special
op to seize the president of Taiwan: or Russia tries to do the same for Zelensky - what exactly do we say? You can’t do that, it’s illegal?
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18 Dec 2025
This is a must-listen talk by Warren Buffet on the US National Security Strategy. His analysis: forget the silly insults, Trump just pressed the self-destruct button for US military industry and technological leadership. Fascinating! youtu.be/VSBXzK3Vf7o?si=SaYP… via @YouTube
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Dan Smith retweeted
4 Dec 2025
Rather than a tribute to Donald Trump , this renaming can be seen as an irony and provocation to all professionals and researchers who made US institute of Peace a respected international actor
in diplomacy
The Institute was recently
dismantled by the Trump
administration.
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1 Dec 2025
Events are showing that flaws in the peace plan for Gaza announced put it in serious danger of failing in the short term. Nothing is inevitable but the risk is clear. My 3rd assessment of the plan:
bit.ly/4rv2ebu
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