Temperature, tensions and two scenarios

Just a year ago the scenarios team in Shell published The Energy Security Scenarios, a look at the world through the dual lenses of climate change and rising security concerns. Today, the two scena…

The EU in 2040 – systemic change is now required

On February 6th the European Commission published its Communication and Impact Assessment (IA) for a 2040 Climate Target for the EU, recommending a net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target of 90% …

When might fossil fuel phase out happen?

In the run-up to COP28 and at the conference itself, a key call by some nations and many observers is to include language in the COP decisions to signal the phase out of fossil fuels. While there i…

Green Dream or Innovation Wins?

I recently attended an emission trading conference in Paris and like many such events in the EU now, one of the first items on the agenda (and in this case it was the first) was a presentation and …

What does recent temperature data mean for the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal?

In mid-2019 I posted a global temperature analysis that showed how we might have a first 1.5°C year sooner than many were imagining. This built on a 2016 story I posted. My 2016 analysis was cataly…

The pencil problem

Many years ago the well know economist Milton Friedman made a short film about pencils that continues to resonate today. While the film can be interpreted as simply a defence for capitalism, which …

Developing countries hold the key to reaching Net Zero Emissions

A guest post by my scenario team colleagues Thomas Akkerhuis and Georgios Bonias In a few days, leaders from the world’s largest economies will gather in India for the 2023 G20 summit. The G20 Pres…

Energy, Weather and Climate Forum: Challenges and Opportunities

Direct Air Capture is coming fast, sort of!

For the people in a scenario team, it’s always exciting when something that you have discussed in your work suddenly starts to appear. It’s even more exciting when it happens in the company that yo…

It’s climate target season, but one more target is needed

One of the features of an upcoming COP is that the months prior often bring with them a slew of proposals for new global targets and initiatives. This year is no different, perhaps also driven by t…

A rush to renewables isn’t enough; managing fossil fuel emissions is essential as well

A guest post by my scenarios team colleague Richard Baker –  Senior Energy Adviser There is widespread consensus that a marked decline in the use of all oil and gas over the coming decad…

Without Article 6 there may be no 1.5°C (or even 2°C)

The 58th session of the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice will take place in Bonn from June 5-15 and one of the features of the session is further progress in operati…

How quickly can a synthetic aviation fuel industry emerge?

In late April, the European Parliament and EU Member States reached agreement on new mandates for sustainable aviation fuels through to 2050. Under the final agreement, the percentage of sustainabl…

Using scenarios to visualize possible EU emission pathways

The Shell Scenario Team released The Energy Security Scenarios about a month ago and I’ve been out talking with stakeholders about them in the meantime. The two new scenarios (see Note below), Sky …

Finally, an EU foot in the removals door

As the EU continues to develop and progress legislation around its 2030 and net-zero emissions goals, one key proposal has surfaced that will be with us for decades to come.  It is the EU prop…

A chat with ChatGPT about emissions mitigation

In a recent article from the World Economic Forum the authors made the point that artificial intelligence (AI) systems will be essential for the emissions mitigation task that society faces. In fac…