With events moving quickly, I want to preview our study on battle damage coming out later today, here are some takeaways.
1) Overall, Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.
2) That being said there are residuals such as stocks of 60 percent, 20 percent, and 3-5 percent enriched uranium and the centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow. These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium.
3) Complicating any effort to turn weapon-grade uranium into nuclear explosives have been extensive attacks against Iran’s facilities and personnel that would make the nuclear weapon itself. Iran’s infrastructure to build the nuclear weapon has been severely damaged. The time Iran would need to build even a non-missile deliverable nuclear weapon has increased significantly.
What to do?
1) Israeli intelligence would be expected to continue hunting in Iran, even under the ceasefire, for non-destroyed residuals, such as nuclear materials, centrifuges, and nuclear weapon manufacturing capabilities.
2) Any U.S. agreement with Iran should address these residuals by negotiating an end to Iran’s enrichment program, as President Trump has stated, in a verifiable manner. As part of that deal, Iran must also give up its enriched uranium stocks and destroy its remaining centrifuges. The IAEA can verify this. An agreement should also require Iran to dismantle its capabilities to make nuclear weapons. The IAEA can verify all this as well.
Any agreement should be cast as a ceasefire agreement; violations can lead to prompt Israeli attacks and in rare cases a U.S. response.