The most sane take on AI/Models.
I’m never betting against human ingenuity. We might end up in another AI winter but I think that overtime we’ll get better/cheaper models that are also cheaper to train.
I'm not smart enough to know any better, but here's my take on the model industry, especially wrt to using it in coding agents.
1. Models are the entirety of the capabilities. Context engineering is not really a thing. You cannot work around limitations of models. You can test this by attempting the same tasks across harnesses using the same models, and you'll get approximately the same outcomes. Coding agents are the best place to test this kind of thing as they're one of the most difficult problem spaces.
2. Models that are outdated - not actively being trained and tuned - become significantly worse than models that are continuously trained. This goes hand-in-hand with (1). You cant work around the models lack of knowledge (or anti-knowledge even). More so, you can try, but it will forever want to do what it's training data biases towards.
3. The cost of inference might be achievable today from what customers are willing to spend, but the economics are totally broken because nothing factors in the cost of training. Yes, there's charts that hyopthesize about how this will fix itself, but that's all make believe afaict.
4. There ARE still value add plays with local models, out of date models, etc, but for the most difficult tasks that we all want to believe in, I dont think they are going to be good enough. Especially because most people are betting in _more_ capabilities than we have today, not ~same or less.
This is entirely informed by my day to day usage of models, the behaviors I see, and my attempts at working around those behaviors (often unsuccessfully). I could totally be wrong, but I'm betting that I'm directionally correct.