Positive economic surprises helping push flows into the US. We are also seeing this is Net Overseas investment (BoP) for many countries continue to sell domestic and buy US. Huge driver of capital flows.

Oil 25P/ATM vs SEK 25P/ATM, Brent put pricing remains subdued, relative to ATM.

83.5% of companies beat to upside, given revisions breadth and underlying macro conditions hard to see headwinds to equities

Market expects inflation to decline in year 2 of the next 2 years. Market expecting supply-shock to be a short run phenomenon.

Economy moving into expansion quadrant = risk-on.

US growth remains resilient, with GDP nowcast tracking near 3.3%. Easier financial conditions, fiscal support, AI-driven investment, stronger manufacturing activity, and healthier bank lending continue to reinforce momentum. Domestic energy production also reduces vulnerability to external supply disruptions.

Cumulative hikes priced in relative to a month ago. While data has been strong and inflation is moving in the wrong direction hard seeing hikes materialize.

Russell currently underperforming S&P EPS by a massive gap. More rate cuts are priced out even if not materialized more it weighs on the interest rate sensitivity of small caps. Which have seen deterioration of fundamentals. On earnings S&P should continue to outperform as it has become increasing thematic which have had blowout quarters.

Mauser’s second-lien bonds have remained relatively resilient despite broader industrial softness, helped by stabilization in chemical prices and trade activity. The company also has limited direct exposure to the Middle East, reducing some geopolitical risk while potentially benefiting from supply-chain disruptions and shifting trade flows. While the bonds still trade at elevated yields versus packaging peers, current spreads may overstate the degree of underlying operating stress.

ECB raised as expected 25-bps.

Foreign flows into Turkey remain tactical, with investors rotating in and out of equities and government debt rather than committing long-term capital. Currency stability continues to anchor positioning, TRY weakness consistently triggers outflows, while periods of stability attract selective inflows, primarily into high-yielding government bonds. The latest data suggests cautious re-engagement, but investors are still trading Turkey’s yield, not buying into a durable macro story.