hunting inefficiencies since 2021

Joined February 2024
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devilon retweeted
Dividends on perps sounds fake until you realize what Variational is actually building If you hold a long on a stock or ETF perp that pays dividends, vari pays it through funding That means RWA perps are not just casino wrappers for TradFi tickers anymore. They are starting to copy the actual economics of the underlying asset - but with crypto rails, leverage and 24/7 access This is the part people are sleeping on The next RWA cycle won't be only “tokenized stocks”. It will be synthetic markets that behave closer to real markets, but move at crypto speed Watch vari closely
When you hold a long position on Variational for a stock or ETF that pays dividends, you receive dividend payments as funding.
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devilon retweeted
Someone made $3.5M on Polymarket without trying to predict every random headline He focused on one thing: NBA markets Not politics Not daily news Not vibes Just one vertical where he could understand the structure better than the average trader The real edge was not “pick the winner” It was stacking correlated outcomes on the same game: moneyline, spreads, totals, pace, margin, live pricing. If the model was right, multiple positions paid at once That’s the part most people miss about prediction markets The winners are not just better at opinions. They are better at turning messy events into repeatable systems One guy sees “Knicks vs Spurs” Another sees 20 tiny mispricings across lines, liquidity, timing and correlation Same market Completely different game If you’re trying to find edge on Polymarket, don’t start by asking “what will happen?” Start with: Where is the market lazy? Where are outcomes connected? Where does retail overreact? Where can I repeat the same setup 100 times? Prediction markets reward being right But they reward being systematic even more
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Someone made $3.5M on Polymarket without trying to predict every random headline He focused on one thing: NBA markets Not politics Not daily news Not vibes Just one vertical where he could understand the structure better than the average trader The real edge was not “pick the winner” It was stacking correlated outcomes on the same game: moneyline, spreads, totals, pace, margin, live pricing. If the model was right, multiple positions paid at once That’s the part most people miss about prediction markets The winners are not just better at opinions. They are better at turning messy events into repeatable systems One guy sees “Knicks vs Spurs” Another sees 20 tiny mispricings across lines, liquidity, timing and correlation Same market Completely different game If you’re trying to find edge on Polymarket, don’t start by asking “what will happen?” Start with: Where is the market lazy? Where are outcomes connected? Where does retail overreact? Where can I repeat the same setup 100 times? Prediction markets reward being right But they reward being systematic even more
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devilon retweeted
Polymarket just turned a soccer match into a 3.3M-view liquidation clip A reported $1.8M position against the US vs Paraguay became the whole timeline’s scoreboard: odds, whale, live sweat, memes, community note, then the market getting cooked in public That’s the part people miss about prediction markets They’re not only for forecasting. They turn every event into a financial story people can watch in real time Sportsbooks have odds Polymarket has plot
🚨BREAKING: Someone just put $1.8M on the United States to NOT win their match vs Paraguay tonight The payout is $3,507,148.00 on polymarket
Community note
The largest position on Polymarket for the United States not winning vs Paraguay is $538K by one user, not $1.8M with a $3.5M payout. polymarket.com/@maxim8899 sports.yahoo.com/articles/polym…
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Everyone is talking about tokenized stocks, but the real product might be perps Variational just reported $244B in total volume, $859M OI, $138M TVL and almost $2M net profit in 2 weeks That is the part most people are missing RWA perps are not only about tokenized stocks or pre-IPO hype. They are turning 24/7 price discovery into an onchain product Crypto traders used to wait for TradFi markets to open Now TradFi assets are starting to trade like crypto
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devilon retweeted
Public markets just got front-run by crypto perps SpaceX’s announced starting price was $171/share. One minute before that, the SPCX perp on Hyperliquid was trading at 171 That’s the whole thesis in one screenshot: price discovery is moving from 9:30-4 TradFi venues to 24/7 synthetic markets Not every perp is real signal. But when enough people trade the same asset, Nasdaq starts looking more like the confirmation layer
Jun 12
Hyperliquid (Tradexyz) traders predicted the exact opening price of SpaceX. The Hyperliquid SpaceX perp was trading at 171 just 1 minute before they announced the starting price of $171 per share. app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/xy…
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devilon retweeted
Prediction markets are becoming the new headline layer A vague Trump line about the US taking equity stakes in AI companies instantly became a tradable map on Polymarket When I checked, Anthropic was around 45%, OpenAI around 25%, and NVIDIA around 17% for a US government stake by year-end That’s the real shift. CT is not just reacting to news anymore, it is pricing the policy path before details exist Sometimes the market is wrong. But the format is insanely powerful: headline -> odds -> debate -> new narrative The timeline argues. The market puts a number on it
JUST IN: Trump announces the government will seek equity stakes in top AI companies to make the public “very rich”
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devilon retweeted
🎉 Eligible for 10,900 $BASE 💰 Estimated Value: $54,000 Should I retire already? 😂 Nothing confirmed yet — just having some Friday fun. Check yours: base-airdrop-calculator.verc…
Base checker says I'm eligible for 10,250 $BASE 🎉 → 100/100 Onchain Score → Power User → Est. Value: $12.3k Lmao, just for fun 💀 Check yours ↓ base-checker-gray.vercel.app…
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Base farming is about to get a lot less brainless The obvious signal is Base saying it is beginning to explore a network token. Everyone saw that The real signal is what happens next: the meta shifts from random swaps to proving you actually create value onchain If Base ships a token, I doubt the cleanest edge is 500 dust txs from obvious farm wallets. The better bet is real usage, real apps, real volume, real identity, real contribution This is not another L2 farm This is Coinbase trying to turn onchain activity into a distribution engine
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223 wallets have already checked my Base airdrop calculator. The average estimate came out to 6,485 $BASE per wallet At a $5B FDV, 10B token supply and 25% airdrop allocation, that would be around $3,240 for the average wallet @base is no longer hiding the token path. Aidrop is closer than most think! I still believe base won’t disappoint. Everyone who actually touched the ecosystem might be very happy they did
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~$3,240 for users $100k for builders Receipts ↓ x.com/devilonnn/status/20651…

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devilon retweeted
Base wrote it in their own docs "qualifies you for potential future rewards" Not a leak. Not a rumor. It's sitting in the builder codes documentation Everyone is farming swaps while the actual hint is in plain text
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Base wrote it in their own docs "qualifies you for potential future rewards" Not a leak. Not a rumor. It's sitting in the builder codes documentation Everyone is farming swaps while the actual hint is in plain text
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full playbook in the pinned article: 6 ecosystems that paid builders, the dashboards base uses to track apps, my exact claude prompt receipts for every claim ↓ x.com/devilonnn/status/20651…

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