Crypto & Macro. Analyzing outcomes, not sentiments. See what the smart money is betting on

Joined March 2009
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CZ's 72 rules. $108 billion. Your odds of becoming the next CZ are basically zero. Your odds of changing your life by following his playbook? Pretty damn close to 100%. CZ dropped a book - "Freedom of Money." Started writing it in a prison cell (4 months for AML). Inside: 72 rules that built Binance and a 12-figure net worth. We read it so you don't have to. Here's the breakdown: MINDSET 1. Stop wasting time 2. Don't just chase money 3. Do more with less 4. Hold your line 5. Be honest with people 6. Build long-term win-wins 7. Focus 8. Cut toxic people off 9. Stay positive 10. Do the work yourself 11. Never stop learning 12. Be early 13. Understand how the world actually works 14. Ignore labels 15. Set hard rules 16. Think global TEAM 17. Team > individual 18. Rotate teams regularly 19. Internal competition is healthy 20. Controlled chaos is still order 21. More local team bonding 22. Give real feedback 23. Go easy on verbal praise 24. Flag problems — don't gossip 25. Hiring is everything 26. Don't try to motivate people who don't want it 27. Lead by example 28. Never micromanage 29. Check the resume, then judge by output 30. Cut the weak links 31. Output is the goal 32. Don't obsess over targets 33. Tolerate failure. But not all failure BUSINESS 34. Keep it simple 35. Say no to dead-end partnerships early 36. Move fast or move on 37. No exclusivity deals 38. Always have an exit clause 39. Always cap your liability 40. No exceptions 41. BD on inbound only. Only do deals that actually work 42. Say no early and often. Saves everyone's time COMMUNICATION 43. Short and direct 44. Write short 45. A message beats a meeting 46. Skip the communication chains 47. One message, full context. Don't split it up 48. Don't argue over text 49. Over-communicating is a thing too 50. When you ask a question — give context 51. Specify units 52. Keep meetings short 53. Start on time 54. No intros, no backstory — get to the point 55. Under 10 people per discussion 56. Remove the silent ones 57. Send an agenda before the meeting 58. No slide decks 59. No "get to know you" meetings PRODUCT 60. User first 61. Only build what scales 62. Everyone on the team is a product manager PR & DECISIONS 63. No big launches 64. Don't announce empty MOUs and LOIs 65. If it's ready — ship it 66. Respond to journalists 67. React to bad press fast 68. Decision framework: first principles, small vs big picture, reversible vs irreversible, do we have the expertise, do we have the data REST 69. Sleep 70. Stay calm 71. Skip the fancy office 72. Rest and have fun 17 of 72 rules are about communication and meetings. That's nearly a quarter. Most founders are obsessed with product and fundraising. But what actually kills companies? Basic operational communication chaos.
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So you're admitting this was a mistake? Your library of 35 books, reading Giordano Bruno and Schopenhauer at sunrise, all that flexing and in the end, you just messed up and sent 100x the amount to a complete stranger.
Thank you for the financial advice. I will take it under consideration the next time I accidentally send a quarter million dollars to a man in Guinea, which will be never, because I already made that mistake and the mistake was funnier than anything you have ever done on purpose.
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I don't know why everyone’s hating on this guy. Yeah, he jeeted and made way less than he could have. But since he didn't even have SOL in his wallet, he had no idea how it worked. $40K for a single comment is lifechanging. Congrats to him.
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The trader who doesn't sleep at night. His mistake cost $150,000,000,000. Somewhere in Tokyo lives Masayoshi Son (CEO of SoftBank), who hit sell button on Nvidia stock back in 2019. Remember that crypto winter? Nobody was talking about AI, and Nvidia cards were only good for mining. Crypto crashed (just like today), SoftBank's CEO panicked and dumped all his Nvidia shares, thinking he was saving what was left. Later, it turned out his panic led to a -$150 billion uPNL. Seven years later. Another bear market. And smart money is doing the exact same thing again (selling). A few public contenders: • Arthur Hayes dumping his ETH bags at a -50% loss. • Peter Thiel completely sold out of ETH. • We'll find out about the other paper-hands soon. A few years from now, we’ll see some smart money figure tearfully explaining how the big fish got away (the exact words of SoftBank's CEO at a 2024 shareholder meeting). Smart money and funds aren't always right.
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What legal powers does Trump have to impose tariffs bypassing the IEEPA? 1️⃣ Section 232 - National Security Threat - Requires a Department of Commerce investigation. - No limits on duration or tariff rates. 2️⃣ Section 201 - Injury to Domestic Industry - Requires an International Trade Commission investigation. - Duration: 4 years (can be extended to 8). - Tariffs: Up to 50%, decreasing after one year. 3️⃣ Section 301 - Discrimination against US Companies / Trade Agreement Violations - Investigation conducted by the US Trade Representative. - 4-year term, can be extended indefinitely. - No limit on tariff rates. 4️⃣ Section 122 - International Payment Imbalances - No investigation required. - Duration: 150 days (can be extended with Congressional approval). - Tariffs: 15% 5️⃣ Section 338 - Discrimination against US Trade - No investigation required. - No limits on duration. - Tariffs: 50%.
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Average $BTC reaction:
The bottom line on the tariff reversal: The US Supreme Court just struck down Trump’s global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling. The government now has to cough up nearly $200 billion in refunds to the companies that have been footin' the bill for this 'economic war' all year. The justices' verdict: Trump overstepped his authority. What’s the play for crypto? Corporations are getting a massive cash injection. A chunk of that liquidity is bound to flow back into the markets - whether through stock buybacks, bonuses, or direct investment. Expect Trump to hunt for loopholes to push tariffs through other laws while trying to sabotage the court’s decision. This means more panic-sell waves ahead. We might be witnessing the beginning of the end for Trump. Polymarket already shows a 41% chance of a Democratic sweep in the Senate midterms.
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The bottom line on the tariff reversal: The US Supreme Court just struck down Trump’s global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling. The government now has to cough up nearly $200 billion in refunds to the companies that have been footin' the bill for this 'economic war' all year. The justices' verdict: Trump overstepped his authority. What’s the play for crypto? Corporations are getting a massive cash injection. A chunk of that liquidity is bound to flow back into the markets - whether through stock buybacks, bonuses, or direct investment. Expect Trump to hunt for loopholes to push tariffs through other laws while trying to sabotage the court’s decision. This means more panic-sell waves ahead. We might be witnessing the beginning of the end for Trump. Polymarket already shows a 41% chance of a Democratic sweep in the Senate midterms.
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Tariffs are cancelled. Are we mooning?
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"Weapon that can send warship to the bottom of the sea" says Khamenei, the (currently still) Supreme Leader of Iran. But what are they gonna do about 120 aircraft? Is your portfolio ready for a drone show from Uncle Donald? he US is set to strike this weekend, with warships and hundreds of fighter jets already in the Persian Gulf (NBC) 60% odds on a US-Iran war by the end of March (Polymarket) If BTC breaks $60k, the next stop is a freefall (classic risk-off) followed by a V-shaped recovery.
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Polymarket proved every poll in America is useless. Forever. Here's why traditional polling is dead: Hedge funds now use Polymarket INSTEAD of polls for decision-making. Not as a supplement. As a replacement. Why? Polls ask people's opinions. Polymarket tracks people's money. People lie to pollsters. People don't lie with $50K bets. The shift is happening quietly - Goldman Sachs cited Polymarket in client notes - Political campaigns monitoring odds in real-time - Media now reports "Polymarket shows..." instead of "Polls show..." We just watched the death of an entire industry. Polling companies will exist for legacy media. But anyone making real decisions? They're watching prediction markets. The age of representative samples is over. The age of put your money where your mouth is has begun.
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I lost $8,031 on Polymarket in 7 days. Not from bad predictions. From psychological traps my brain couldn't escape. Here are the 7 cognitive errors that destroyed my account: 1. OVERCONFIDENCE SPIRAL Won 5 trades early. Thought I had skill. It was variance. Bet big, lost bigger. 2. ANCHORING Bought at 70¢. Market dropped to 45¢. Held because "it's undervalued vs my entry." Your cost basis is irrelevant. Only current probability matters. 3. SUNK COST FALLACY Down $1200. Averaged down at 30¢, 20¢, 15¢. "Too deep to quit." Market resolved at 8¢. Lost $2400 trying to save $1200. 4. FOMO ON VIRAL MARKETS "UFO disclosure" trended on Twitter. Bought at 35¢ without research. Bled to 5¢. Lost $600. Viral ≠ value. High attention = dumb money. 5. MARKET PRICE = TRUTH Saw 78% and thought "almost certain." Wrong. Markets reflect who's betting and how much capital they have. 80% markets resolve NO all the time. 6. REVENGE TRADING Lost $3K. Tilted. "Need to make it back FAST." Doubled position sizes. Made impulsive bets. Lost $1800 in 3 days. 7. LIQUIDITY TRAP Found a mispriced market. Bought $2K. I owned 25% of total volume. Couldn't exit. Lost $600 on a WINNING trade. The lesson - Polymarket isn't about predictions. It's psychological warfare. The enemy isn't the market. It's your brain. Master these traps, or they'll master you.
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16 hours ago: I drop an article I’ve been grinding on for two weeks, and it gets 10 likes. 13 hours ago: @raychi_god unfollows me straight up copies my entire piece posts it himself and pulls 10x the views and likes. X, what am I doing wrong?
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Spent a ton of time writing this article, guys. It’s a must read for everyone. x.com/diorcrypto/status/2023…

Polymarket is valued at $12B. 43,000 wallets belong to one person. The largest airdrop in crypto is coming. I spent 2 weeks breaking down the war nobody's talking about. Everything you need to know 👇 x.com/diorcrypto/status/2023…
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@pizzintwatch What do you think guys? I've broken down a lot of useful points
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Polymarket is valued at $12B. 43,000 wallets belong to one person. The largest airdrop in crypto is coming. I spent 2 weeks breaking down the war nobody's talking about. Everything you need to know 👇 x.com/diorcrypto/status/2023…

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Crypto jobs in 2026: > AMEX is hiring Crypto Product Managers > PayPal is hiring Crypto Business Development specialists > Visa is hiring Crypto Sales & Partnerships leads > JPMorgan is hiring Blockchain Developers > Morgan Stanley is hiring Crypto Traders > BlackRock is hiring Digital Asset specialists > Citi is hiring Blockchain Engineers What are all these top tier firms actually preparing for?
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World Uncertainty Index (yes, that’s a real thing) is currently at ATH Just to give you an idea of the economic uncertainty we're living through - even the peaks of the 2001 recession, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic were lower than the levels we’re seeing right now.
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@brentradess what do u think my bro?
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The cryptocom CEO just executed the biggest Super Bowl flop of the decade. > Bought ai.com for $70M (with zero AI background) > Wrapped free, opensource OpenClaw in a shiny UI > Forces you to link a credit card immediately just to "claim a username" > The site looks like it was vibecoded by a single prompt > Burned another $10M on the ad slot > The site instantly died with a 504 error when the ad aired Either he's betting the house on the AI bubble, or his strategy hasn't changed since 2016. The only winner here? A guy in Malaysia named Arsyan Ismail. He registered the domain in the 90s for $100 because those were his initials. He just bagged a 700,000x return.
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