NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions:
The "keys" are:
– party mandate
– contest
– incumbency
– third party
– short-term economy
– long-term economy
– policy change,
– social unrest
– scandal
– foreign/military failure
– foreign/military success
– incumbent charisma
– challenger charisma
As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.
Lichtman still has four keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, "a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose."
Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.