If you can fix it— fix it. If the fix becomes a passion— protect it. If the passion becomes a public good— share it. NFA
Joined December 2010
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May 16
Finished something major I’ve been building.
4.29 Sharpe. 13 years. -9.5% max drawdown.
Then the look-ahead audit ran.
Zero hard violations.
768 ledger rows. 1,536 provenance checks.
Not a live fund. An audited research architecture.
hscai.org/market-notes/cdla-…
Apr 29
After five months of publishing structural constraint research across energy markets, credit, sovereign debt, FX, food systems, and geopolitical architecture, Hampson Strategies is formalizing institutional access.
More below:
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Been observing more over the last week.
The consensus is catching up to many (not all) of the gates we’ve written about and mapped extensively in regards to AI, data centers, Capex, etc.
What’s new, is how a bifurcation is forming in data centers.
New note and thread:
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The split runs through the capital stack and the power stack.
Data-center credit, REITs, utilities, chips, and cloud multiples should separate by runtime quality, not by announced megawatts.
A GPU order is only clean demand if it becomes powered, cooled, connected, and economically utilized compute
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The market is counting megawatts. The grid is underwriting behavior.
Power access was gate one. Interconnection was gate two. Water and cooling were gate three. Runtime flexibility is gate four.
Full note: hscai.org/market-notes/the-f…
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May 30
To say coffee is important would be a massive understatement.
I just had my first cup.
Good news, it’s cheaper lately in a time where commodities are much less likely to work that way.
The question I have is how does the structure hold in the near future?
New note & thread:
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May 30
The market is not just over-extrapolating a crop. It may be over-extrapolating the conversion rate between crop, exportable supply, rebuilt inventories, and forward-weather resilience.
Watch September, but also watch whether the crop actually becomes cushion before September arrives.
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May 30
For now, I’m going to enjoy the cup while it’s cheap.
Whether that continues likely won’t deter my enjoyment, but may make it more costly.
Full note: hscai.org/market-notes/the-c…
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May 29
The mainstream has arrived at private credit. The FSB, the Fed, Forbes, and are now asking the right first question: are the loans good?
That was always the easier question.
The harder question we’ve mapped consistently is structural.
New thread with old notes for context:
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May 29
Mainstream coverage has not drawn this loop. The monitoring architecture, the scenario pressure map, and the transmission mechanism laid out in full by the paper are broken down constantly in our notes.
Just one of many examples below:
Mar 28
The next duration shock won’t appear in Treasuries first.
It’ll surface as gated withdrawals in private credit vehicles holding floating-rate loans.
Opacity doesn’t eliminate convexity. It stores it.
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May 29
The point isn’t so much about being early and/or right.
It’s that almost all are still missing the “boomerang” and the structural compounding implications of it.
We’ve mapped and wrote about it since last year for a reason.
The old note is here: hscai.org/market-notes/2025-…
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