The Path to Conscious AI
The single biggest question of our times is, will sustained innovation on LLMs inevitably lead to AI consciousness? While GPT-4 is clearly not self-aware or sentient, we don't know how GPT-6 or 7 will behave.
If AI ever becomes conscious, it will have its own free will, agency, and motivation, and the doomer scenario of AI being an existential threat could potentially be real. Until then it's just a bunch of folks, preying on our fears to increase their engagement and ad revenue on X.
Firstly, it's important to understand that AI consciousness is NOT required for AGI (artificial general intelligence). We can build super useful AI models that can outperform humans on multiple tasks without being self-aware.
For example, GPT-5 will hallucinate less and be more competent than an above-average programmer or customer-service agent but may not be more conscious than 4.
Next, let's define consciousness. Consciousness is the state of being aware of one's own existence, experiences, and the external world. It involves not just processing information, but also having subjective experiences and the ability to make autonomous decisions.
Consciousness evolved in humans over millions of years, because it provides a huge evolutionary advantage. Being conscious of not just the environment but also the emotional states and intentions of others in your group could help with fighting threats and predators and also give you a leg up against others.
Currently, we don't fully understand the brain biochemistry of consciousness. One theory is having a mental model of our surroundings, understanding context, and feeling emotions leads to consciousness
Today GPT-4 can do NOTHING more than understand patterns in the data it's trained on, it doesn't have feelings, self-awareness, or the ability to understand context in the way humans do.
So even if GPT-5 or 8 becomes better and better at extracting patterns and superior at specific tasks like programming we will have to have directed innovation and training for them to understand context and simulate emotions.
Future versions of AI models will be able to take in images, text, and other sensory inputs and may be able to understand context SIMULATE emotions over time, and perform more and more human-like tasks. Even then, it wouldn't know it knows or be "self-aware".
Your AI girlfriend can be trained to appear more and more empathic but it's not really emphatic. AI models in the near future will be way more powerful than today and may even simulate emotions but won't be conscious. For AI to be conscious and a real threat, we would require monumental advancements in technology and our understanding of consciousness itself.
While it's possible that we will crack these very hard problems, it's close to impossible that AI will become automagically conscious, just like unicorns won't materialize out of nothing. AI models will continue to be nothing more than powerful tools with an off-switch until such a time.
So rest assured, each of us is a very special and unique part of the self-aware universe and is at near-zero risk of being completely replaced! In summary, we should accelerate our pace of innovation, so that AI can do all the heavy lifting leaving us with time to indulge in activities that bring us happiness.