Introducing: Prediction Market Atlas What most people see in prediction markets is only the surface. The categories now shipping include futarchy, distribution markets, multiverse markets, opinion markets, attention markets, decision markets, and info-finance. Each has its own pricing logic, regulatory lane, and audience. PM Atlas maps that landscape across 108 platforms, 12 mechanisms, and 90 concepts, from industry structure down to the actual products being built. A way to track who is building what, how these markets differ, and where the next primitives are emerging. pmatlas.xyz

think you got it in you? put yourself to the test

If you’re seeing this, you’re early. There are 200M–300M traders globally. Only ~1.3M have ever touched prediction markets. And if you already understand prediction markets are much bigger than yes/no bets, you’re even earlier. At @Dekantfi, we’re building a new market primitive where people can trade beliefs the way they actually think: not a side, not a bucket. your entire belief curve! So far, we’ve opened access to 50 handpicked early users. Now looking for more, If you’re a: - quant trader - discretionary trader (especially crypto majors) - prediction market trader - or anyone who thinks differently about markets DM Me.

Found a new land where you trade what you actually believe. We're already in the field at sunrise and want to bring a few more people in. Join us!

We gave early access to 50 traders. Now opening it up to more. Looking for: - Quant traders - Discretionary traders (especially crypto majors) - Prediction market traders - Anyone who thinks about markets differently than the crowd DM @embrron or @somonaut.

Every financial instrument starts out looking like gambling. Options did in 1973. Calls only, traded in a converted smoking lounge, dismissed as a casino. Five years later the math showed a row of strikes is a full probability distribution, and options became a multi-trillion-dollar market. Prediction markets are at the same starting line. Over time they stop being bets and become instruments.

markets usually look primitive before they look inevitable prediction markets still get read as bets because most people are only seeing first generation formats the design space is much bigger than that, that’s what makes building @Dekantfi so exciting

Best reply ever!

my cousin is 16 and deep into sports betting. he built his own algorithm, ran the analysis, found a real edge and a few days ago, he hit a big win on one of the “reputable” platforms. they closed his whole account, called it fraud, took the money he won, then took the money he walked in with too. he sent them every proof he had but it didn't matter. that's not a glitch, that's the business model. a sportsbook is the house, it's betting against you. so the second you start winning, you stop being a customer and become a threat, winning too well is the one thing they can't allow. this is the whole reason prediction markets matter even in sport betting. a prediction market isn't the house, it's an exchange. you trade against other people, not the platform. nobody loses when you win, so nobody has a reason to ban you for being right. a 16 year old with an edge should be the dream customer. in the old world he's the enemy, in the new one he's just a good trader.

Prediction markets are not just another trading category. They’re a new mechanism for turning information, beliefs, and uncertainty into something measurable. Putting capital behind opinions changes everything.

soon you'll trade what you can only talk or think about today. distribution and multiverse markets unlock a new way to trade what you believe, the way you never could before. trade the full curve not just a single guess, trade futures that depend on other futures. New markets, new ways to trade.

honestly not sure people can even name another network besides @solana

Every great market starts by making something previously invisible tradable. Options made volatility tradable or Futures made future prices tradable. Prediction markets are doing the same thing now, But for variables we never had markets for: • event probabilities • conditional outcomes • belief distributions New market primitives are turning things we could only talk about into things we can finally trade.

btw yeah, I used an @arc tweet to say this. but there’s only one place where this narrative is actually taking shape: @solana. 20 teams already building new market primitives here. Markets we’ve never had before

People are starting to see the bigger picture. New market primitives aren’t just better prediction markets, they're new financial instruments. New ways to express beliefs, price information, and build markets that couldn’t exist before. One of the biggest narratives ahead. That’s my bet.

Prediction markets are no longer one mechanism, they’re becoming a design space. over the next few weeks, I'll break down 7 prediction market primitives, one by one: 1. Binary Markets 2. Event Contracts 3. Scalar Markets 4. Decision Markets 5. Multiverse Markets 6. Information Markets 7. Continuous Markets Each one exists because a different type of belief needs a different market structure. Beliefs have different shapes, Markets should too!