Mideast Geopolitics through the Maranatha Lens.

Joined May 2022
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The Israeli gov't did not get much influence in the negotiating process, which is reportedly "terrible" for the interests of the Jewish State, according to the entire cabinet.
(Reuters) - The preliminary agreement is "terrible for Israel," said one senior Israeli official, giving a frank assessment on condition of anonymity. "And there is no one in the Israeli leadership who views it otherwise, from the prime minister to the chief of staff." Three Israeli officials said Israel sees it as very likely the 60-day pact will be extended to 90 days, with the U.S. maintaining its deployment of military assets in the region as it negotiates a broader deal. Two other Israeli officials said that Israel was caught by surprise last week when Trump first said that a deal with Iran was close. They acknowledged that Israel has had little success in influencing the talks. @RamiAyyub @MaayanLubell report
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JD Vance seems to confirm that Iran will get payments in up to $300 billion for Iranian "reconstruction."
BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 JD Vance confirms that Iran will get $300 billion for war damages
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Bibi's front-running challenger and former prime minister Naftali Bennett (who would likely be prime minister if elections were held today) already promising a "countdown to regime change" in Iran.
יו"ר מפלגת ביחד וראש הממשלה לשעבר נפתלי בנט במסיבת עיתונאים: "שעון העצר להחלפת המשטר באיראן ייפתח, ברגע שהשלטון בישראל יוחלף. בקרוב עם ישראל יבחר הנהגה חדשה, נמרצת, ונחושה שתחזיר את הביטחון לישראל"
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"Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation." - Israeli Proverb
BREAKING | Source Close to the IRGC: Growing Satisfaction Inside Iran Over Emerging Deal • According to a source close to the IRGC, there is growing satisfaction within the organization over the emerging agreement • The assessment inside the IRGC: Trump wanted an open Strait of Hormuz, lower oil prices and calm markets - and he got exactly that • Meanwhile, Iranian officials believe they managed to preserve what matters most: their ballistic missile program, regional proxy network and ability to rebuild their power • The message delivered by IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi throughout the day: “First, we take the money.” • According to the source, discussions inside the IRGC are already focused on the day after the agreement - not the agreement itself • The next pressure point being discussed after Hormuz: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
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Attack (reportedly by ISIS) on Syrian regime security forces in Raqqa today, the former capital of the ISIS caliphate, just recently recaptured from the Kurdish-led SDF.
🔴 BREAKING: At least two Syrian interior ministry personnel were killed in a suicide attack that targeted a ministry camp in the city of Raqqa, the Syrian state news agency reports, citing the ministry’s spokesperson
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The Emmaus Wire retweeted
🔴 BREAKING: At least two Syrian interior ministry personnel were killed in a suicide attack that targeted a ministry camp in the city of Raqqa, the Syrian state news agency reports, citing the ministry’s spokesperson
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The last presidential and legislative elections in the Palestinian Authority were 2005 and 2006 respectively. Mahmood Abbas, leader of the Fatah Party and right-hand man of the recently-deceased Yasser Arafat, won the presidency. Hamas won the legislature. That led to a civil war in the Palestinian territories that saw Fatah consolidate power in the West Bank, while Hamas consolidated power in the Gaza Strip (murdering PA officials and supporters in the process). That has been the status quo for 20 years. But Abbas is old, his party losing popularity, and its clearly time for the status quo to change. But what will that change beget? Important elections coming next year.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree announcing that legislative elections will be held in November and presidential elections in early 2027, according to WAFA.
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Good news that the Admin holds this position, but Iran "controlling" Hezbollah has never meant restraint.
🔴 ‘If Iran is not able to control Hezbollah and if they attack Israel, Israel will have the right to respond,’ US official says on MoU
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Lots of reports here about the terms of the newly signed US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). We have not seen the document yet (expected to be released within 48 hrs), and there are conflicting reports from the US, Iran, and Pakistan regarding its contents. But the MoU is only a temporary framework. What comes out of negotiations over the course of the extended 60 day ceasefire to reach a permanent agreement (or not) will be what's important. reuters.com/world/asia-pacif…
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In a surprise to nobody.
"The US secretly approved a financial and maritime arrangement between #Qatar and #Iran, under which billions of dollars were paid to Tehran in exchange for free passage for Qatari tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz, three diplomatic officials now confirm." "The secret US approval, which the sources said was granted about a month ago, dovetailed with Doha's interest in opening a direct channel of communication with Tehran, which began to tighten after the ceasefire. Qatar, fearing a renewed Iranian attack on its facilities after one of its gas installations was attacked during the war, sought to buy security quiet." "Some of the payments were disguised as fees for tankers passing through Hormuz, and a broad credit line of up to $1 billion was also opened for the purchase of goods through Qatar." israelhayom.com/2026/06/15/t…
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Bibi Netanyahu's administration refuses to abide by any US-Iranian deal that requires Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza.
🚨🇮🇱 A first clear message from Israel after the Iran deal. Defense Minister Israel Katz says Israel will not withdraw from its security zones in Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza despite mounting pressure, stressing that Prime Minister Netanyahu has conveyed this position directly to President Trump and other senior U.S. officials. Defense Minister Israel Katz: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I are leading a clear policy under which the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza — without any time limit — in order to protect Israel’s borders and communities from jihadist elements. The area will be cleared of local residents, and all terrorist infrastructure, both above and below ground — including homes in frontline villages that were used as terrorist outposts — will be demolished. This is the central lesson of October 7. Holding territory and maintaining security zones are among the IDF’s greatest achievements in the War of Revival, under the decisions and guidance of the political leadership. Therefore, we oppose an IDF withdrawal from Lebanon, despite all existing pressures and those that may still come. Prime Minister Netanyahu made this clear to U.S. President Trump and other senior American officials, and I also made it clear yesterday to U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. The IDF supports this position from a professional security standpoint. If there are figures in the opposition who challenge this security doctrine and support an IDF withdrawal, they should stand up and say so openly, so that the public can judge between the competing positions. We will not compromise on Israel’s supreme security interests and the protection of our citizens, and we will not withdraw from the security zones. If Iran attacks Israel over events in Lebanon, we will strike it with full force and clearly demonstrate the gap in capabilities between us. We are committed only to our citizens and to the security of the State of Israel.
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It seems there is an effective ceasefire in Southern Lebanon, if unannounced as of yet.
According to two IDF soldiers from two different forces on the northern border: All activity has ceased, including entry into houses suspected of being weapons depots, and entry into them is conducted by gunfire. Shiites have returned to villages they had so far avoided returning to, and there is a prohibition on acting against them.
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Bibi Netanyahu's government will not abide by the stipulation regarding IDF ceasefire and withdrawal from Lebanon.
Netanyahu informed Trump that Israel will not pull IDF forces from Lebanon and does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon clause in the U.S.-Iran agreement. - Maariv
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The Emmaus Wire retweeted
"All have failed before me." —President Donald J Trump "Is this not Babylon the great, which I myself have built as a royal residence by the might of my power and for the glory of my majesty?" —King Nebuchanezzar (Daniel 4:30) "The Nile is mine, and I myself have made it." —Pharoah (Ezekiel 28:17) "By the power of my hand and by my wisdom I did this, for I have understanding." —Sennacherib (Isaiah 10:13) While they are saying, “Peace and security!” t —Pharaoh (Ezekiel 28:17) upon them suddenly like labor pains upon a woman with child, and they will not escape. (1 Thessalonians 5:3)
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Imagine being an Iranian civilian in February, after suffering a nationwide massacre that saw tens of thousands murdered in the streets (and more disappeared into prisons), then feeling the hopefulness and excitement when the leader of the free world tells you, "help is on the way," only to find out three months later that he never really cared about helping you, and now thinks your murderous leadership cult is "rational." After betraying the Kurdish people in Syria twice, this administration has now betrayed the Iranian people in the most painful way imaginable. After starting strong in his bold pro-Israel policy, now the fissures are showing in an embarrassing way between President Trump and the Israeli government. Meanwhile, Turkish president Erdogan and Syrian president al-Sharaa are praised as friends and great leaders, and the Islamist Qatari emirate receives the special status of "strategic ally." We are commanded to pray for and honor our leaders, but we also speak truth in love. And the truth is, right now, the Mideast policy of the Trump Administration has become a net loss, on its way to a total disaster.
Trump: “As far as regime change, I never cared about regime change. This is the third group we’ve dealt with, and this is the most rational group yet.” WSJ
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In other words, the IRGC is willing to accept another 60 day breather and the injection of cash from unfrozen assets and sanctions relief, but will not be willing to give up its nuclear program in a permanent deal.
BREAKING | IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi Will Not Block the Deal • According to my sources, IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi has agreed not to stand in the way of a deal, despite not supporting it • The IRGC sees strategic value in a ceasefire: sanctions relief, increased oil and gas exports, and access to frozen Iranian funds • In Vahidi’s camp, the calculation is simple: take the money, strengthen Iran, and move forward • But a major dispute remains inside Tehran: while the political leadership sees the deal as a path to economic stability, Vahidi’s camp insists Iran must not give up its nuclear program or accept foreign dictates Bottom line: Vahidi may allow the deal to move forward, but his message remains clear: Iran can take the money without abandoning its core principles. @c14english
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