RT @BurggrabenH: There are plenty of warning signs In 2025, Google spent $80 billion on AI CapEx, which it funded mostly from its enormous…

Looks like deal made a day before SpaceX IPO. Who would have thought..

Cambodia Airways has taken delivery of its first ATR 72-600, marking the aircraft type’s entry into its fleet. Ordered through Avation, the aircraft will support the airline’s regional expansion across Cambodia and Southeast Asia, with a second ATR 72-600 due later this year. Welcome to the ATR family, Cambodia Airways. ✈️ Click here to read more: atrnews.info/Cambodia-Airway… #ATR #CambodiaAirways #ATR72600 #RegionalAviation

#AVAP all buybacks 1 Jan 26 to date. Nothing to see here..

#AVAP another one delivered and leased, another 2 expected by year end. They recognised a c$1.4m uplift to the ATR value on the previous delivery, expect roughly the same on this one. Also, US bond yields much higher now vs Dec-25. All other things being equal, expect an uplift in the ATR option value if nothing materially changes by 30th June. Company not looking to increase share price via buybacks but currently look happy to mop up whatever is being sold at the 134/135p level. Not a stock for traders but I can see Jeff building exceptional value for residual shareholders with what he is doing here.

Simon Thompson at IC is retiring, I wasn't expecting that. I learnt a lot about investing in small caps from reading his books and articles. He didn't get them all right but had a good hit rate. Big loss for IC imo, I didn't really follow anyone else so cancelled my subscription this morning. Wish ST all the best.

#AVAP just came across this podcast with @AVATION_PLC IR director Tim Bacchus recorded last month. It should have been posted on the Company's X account. Interesting listen. timeonwingpodcast.com/212761…

#AVAP From over 74m shares c18 months ago to sub 60m shares, over 16m shares bought back in the period at a c50% discount to NAV. Over $30m spent doing so for a $100m market cap. More of this please.

#AVAP another 1m bought back, that makes it c2.5m (4%) bought back in 4 months at over 50% discount to NAV. Should add c6p to NAV per share.

ch-aviation.com/news/166801-… This is a new ATR 72-600 leased from #AVAP. Due next week now.

#AVAP Now bought over 1.2m (2%) shares in 4 months, roughly 300k a month on average which have added 3p per share to NAV. ATR late again, so unlikely they will meet their own target of 38 deliveries this year. Aluminium shortage supply chain delays input cost rise will only make matters worse on the supply side whereas demand will continue to rise for fuel efficient aircraft. I can see price rises which could be hugely beneficial for a lessor with 14 ATR 72-600s in fleet 14 on order 19 purchase rights. Fleet value Option value increase over lower share count is what I like.

If the gulf states don’t get to supply oil and gas to their customers in Asia soon the long term damage for their market will be huge as policy efforts to move away from Oil and gas will be material. Just look at what China already did others will follow. 1/x

It seems like the war is over (almost) but the supply chains will remain messed up for a very long time. Who remembers what happened to supply chains post covid? Even 50% of that level impact will be significant. Expect more price rises across all real assets.

Some #AVAP related thoughts - Air Baltic is one to keep an eye on, they have been bailed out again (for the short term) with a €30 loan approved by the Latvian govt yesterday. Exposure with 4 A220s (5 previously with an insurance settlement on one written off). No really a concern in any case as this aircraft type is very much in demand. - Every single analysis points to a further increase in demand for ATRs (both new and in the secondary market), c40% for fuel efficient per seat vs regional jets. Empirical evidence (in peak oil price times) supports an increase in demand and market value for ATRs (last 2022/23) -Cirium last values each ATR option at $23m per aircraft. They have 14 in fleet, 14 on order and 19 options. The lessor with the largest ATR order book. I expect increase in lease rates. -ATR purchase option value will increase if bond yields remain at the current level (or US 5Y being higher than 3.7%) at year end (June 30) so positive impact on NAV -Warrants (including AVAW (c4.7m outstanding) are not so much in the money. A cashless exercise at the current share price would only result in c850k shares issued. In any case they expire Oct 26 so have to be exercised before. Employee warrants (strike price 126p, c600k in total expire within 2 weeks so not so much in the money either) which is actually good for long term holders. -Management continue with moderate buybacks, $1m bond also in treasury, continuing with capital management as well as allocating capital for purchase on new ATRs. One due anytime (on lease to Air Cambodia) plus 4 more due by June 27. Each ATR on delivery will add c$1.4m to NAV (variance between option value recognised vs market value as evident with the Dec-25 delivery). Sp 134p vs last reported NAV (274p). They have bought over 1m shares since HY at 50% discount. Doing all the right things. Any increase in ATR value (new secondary) can offer a significant upside to NAV (inevitable). Patience...

I personally think @Henrik115 is the best account on fintwit to follow. Excellent track record and words of wisdom.

#AVAP leased their first ever ATR to them 3 months ago. Now they have ordered another 4 directly with 4 purchase rights. ATRs in demand..#AVAP due to be delivered 4 more by December this year. Preserving cash now to buy back some bonds cheaply (if the market allows) would be wise.

#AVAP has one plane leased to Etihad, that's their total direct exposure to the Middle East and I consider the default risk on that airline to be 0 (state backed, Arabs won't ever let it go bust). No direct risk on any of the other planes/airlines. Some European/Asian airlines will actually be net beneficiaries and take more market share from the Middle Eastern giants (Emirates/Etihad/Qatar). ATR - the current oil price would do more to increase demand for regional fuel-efficient planes and I see no issues in the demand for these planes. Supply would still be an issue (maybe bigger) as supply chains get affected, would only increase secondary market prices. £300m bonds are deferred till 2031. In hindsight what great timing to do it last year. Overall, great opportunity for management to mop up more shares which I am sure they will and I think they are acting very strategically to mop them up lower (why not) as there would be many panic sellers in the current market. I talk my own book. DYOR.

[🔵Press release] ✈️@AVATION_PLC orders five brand-new ATR 72-600s The Singapore-based reinforces its 15-year partnership with ATR by exercising purchase rights for 5 ATR 72‑600s, reaching 54 net firm aircraft ordered to date. This renewed investment shows Avation's strong confidence in the long‑term performance, economics and low‑emission credentials of the ATR platform. Deliveries scheduled for 2028 and 2029. Read our press release to know more: atrnews.info/Avation