The thing about these tariffs that people miss isn't so much whether they cause inflation – that part's actually still up for debate.
The real problem is how they put the brakes on economic growth. They essentially shrink the economic pie for everyone.
When imported goods become more expensive (think of everything on Walmart shelves), consumers have less to spend elsewhere, reducing demand across the economy.
So what happens next is a domino effect – when people have to spend more on the basics, they start cutting back on things like vacations, restaurant meals, and all those little extras.
That money that would've been circulating through the service economy just disappears.
And when everyone's tightening their belts like this across the board, the whole economy starts to contract.
Normally, this is when the Fed would swoop in to lower rates, in order to spur spending. But in an inflationary environment, they can't and shouldn't.
The math just doesn't add up favorably here – what consumers lose through tariffs usually far outweighs any job gains in protected industries.
When you look at the total picture, the economy actually shrinks because people simply have less money to spend, and consumer spending is what really drives our economy.
Meanwhile, the Fed's stuck between a rock and a hard place with inflation still running hot, so they can't rush to cut rates.
Add in the government tightening its belt with spending cuts, and we're looking at some pretty rough economic waters ahead – probably until at least 2026.