Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines are fucked. Here’s why:
Depending on which source on X you look at (or believe), each of these countries have about three weeks worth of fuel reserves at “normal consumption” rates, and maybe six weeks (or less) with rationing. It’s not enough… they’ll exhaust their reserves before resupply arrives:
Each of these countries rely on Asian refineries (India, Singapore, China, South Korea, Japan) for refined fuel. Each of these countries rely on imports from the Middle East, which as we all know, aren’t moving. Each are also already dipping into their strategic petroleum and fuel reserves, and banning/restricting exports.
Here’s the timing problem:
If a loaded oil tanker cleared the straight of Hormuz today, it would take:
- about ten days to three weeks to reach a refinery
- take about 5 days to refine, blend, and load a full fuel tanker
- take two to three weeks to arrive in port
- this doesn’t take into account time to distribute to retailers
Best case, it will take a month to get fuel to Australia, and 5/6 weeks for New Zealand. That math doesn’t math. And this doesn’t take into consideration the likelihood that each of these refining nations are going to prioritize refilling their petroleum/fuel reserves before they start exporting again. Every day this goes on, is one less day of reserves is Australia/NA/Philippines and one more day to restock the refining countries. It’s a 1 = 2/3 dilemma for AUS/NZ.
If the conflict lasts another two weeks AUS/NZ may completely exhaust their fuel supplies, even with rationing, before they receive resupply. The two largest states in AUS are already reporting around 400 filling stations have completely run out of fuel.
Buckle up. Exciting times are ahead…