In our 🌎 World Cup Simulator you can: ✅ estimate probabilities for each position, projected points and goal difference for each of the 48 teams ✅ see the most likely KO opponent for every team in each possible scenario ✅ learn how many points and goal difference each team needs to qualify as a 3rd placed team ✅ see what are the most likely of the 495 possible knockout bracket combinations ✅ access model-based probabilities for Golden Boot and Most Assists races ✅ access pre-match predictions (score probabilities, xG, expected results, over/unders, clean sheet odds...) ✅ follow how all these probabilities shift LIVE, in real time, as the matches are played! ✅ enter your own scenarios and see how ALL these probabilities change depending on the result you entered ...and much more. 💥 PRE-WORLD CUP promo: 🔒⌛️ Lock-in your All-access for only €5.99/mo or €3.99/mo (billed annually) until 10 June, before the new pricing for new subscribers kicks in once the tournament starts! 🔗 football-md.com

The effect of 🇦🇺 AUS v TUR 🇹🇷 2-0 on 3rd place rankings in the live scoreboard. 📈 Group D rises back up, now 2nd most likely to finish Top 8! 🔝 Group C at the top right now. 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for 3rd place rankings available in our 🕹️ Simulator

💥 Shift in projected bracket! 📈 🇦🇺 Australia now projected to fill position D2, to face 🇪🇬 Egypt in R32. 📉 🇹🇷 Türkiye projected to enter as D3, to face 🇩🇪 Germany! 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for all 48 teams in our 🕹️ Simulator

🚨 First major probability shift of the tournament! 📈 Australia 🇦🇺 add 38% to their KO stage chances! 📉 Türkiye 🇹🇷 drop -30% and are now in a dangerous position! 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for all 48 teams available in our 🕹️ Simulator

🌍 Europe struggling so far! After first 5 matches vs other confederations, only 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland managed to win. ❌ 🇨🇿 CZE v KOR 🇰🇷 1-2 🤝 🇨🇦 CAN v BIH 🇧🇦 1-1 🤝 🇨🇭 SUI v QAT 🇶🇦 1-1 ✅ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SCO v HAI 🇭🇹 1-0 ❌ 🇹🇷 TUR v AUS 🇦🇺 0-2

Türkiye 🇹🇷 in major trouble! Live probability scoreboard shows their R32 chances are on a knife's edge right now, at 52%. Australia 🇦🇺 looking great!

Scottish 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 fans were hoping for a more emphatic win over Haiti 🇭🇹 to boost their R32 chances well over 90%. A 1-0 still puts 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 at 85% to make it, but there's more work to do. 📈 To qualify for Round of 32: 97% 🇧🇷 Brazil 91% 🇲🇦 Morocco 85% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 5% 🇭🇹 Haiti

Will 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland be the first European team to record a win at this 🌎 World Cup?

How 🇶🇦 v 🇨🇭 1-1 affected Best 3rd place race in live scoreboard? 📉 Group B dropping in the rankings, all other groups benefit! *only changes of 0.5% or more are indicated in the chart. 👉 Follow how LIVE probabilities shift in real time during each game in our 🕹️ Simulator

📉 A shock that cost 🇨🇭 Switzerland -10% in chances to qualify for R32! 🇶🇦 Qatar added 6%, while 🇨🇦🇧🇦 lost -1% (slightly more chance of finishing 4th). *probability changes do not sum up to 0, because groups are not zero sum game in this system with 8 best 3rd placed teams. 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for all 48 teams in our 🕹️ Simulator

Switzerland 🇨🇭 get shocked in 90' 5'! Qatar 🇶🇦 won their first point EVER at a 🌎 World Cup!

Switzerland 🇨🇭 at 93% to qualify right now in our live probability scoreboard.

Who was the architect of this place? Art Vandelay?

Out of all 495 third-place qualification scenarios, B3 🇧🇦🇨🇦🇨🇭🇶🇦 is paired with E1 🇩🇪🇪🇨🇨🇮🇨🇼 in exactly one of them. It happens only when the eight third-placed teams that advance come from groups B, E, G, H, I, J, K, L. Equivalently: the four third-placed teams that fail to qualify must be precisely the ones from groups A, C, D, and F. Any other combination of eliminated thirds sends B3 to play D1 🇺🇸🇹🇷🇵🇾🇦🇺, assuming B3 qualifies.

🇧🇷 Brazil v Morocco 🇲🇦 is the match of 🌎 WC Day 3, and one of the matches of the entire group stage. W/D/L: 🇧🇷 56% 🤝 23% 🇲🇦 21% Expected goals: 🇧🇷 1.74 🇲🇦 1.10 Clean sheet %: 🇧🇷 33% 🇲🇦 18% Over/under: >1.5 👉 77% >2.5 👉 54% >3.5 👉 31% Probabilities for 🇧🇷 wins: 10% 🇧🇷 1-0 🇲🇦 10% 🇧🇷 2-1 🇲🇦 9% 🇧🇷 2-0 🇲🇦 6% 🇧🇷 3-1 🇲🇦 5% 🇧🇷 3-0 🇲🇦 3% 🇧🇷 3-2 🇲🇦 ... Probabilities for 🇲🇦 wins: 7% 🇲🇦 1-0 🇧🇷 6% 🇲🇦 2-1 🇧🇷 4% 🇲🇦 2-0 🇧🇷 2% 🇲🇦 3-1 🇧🇷 ... Probabilities for 🤝 draws: 11% 🇧🇷 1-1 🇲🇦 6% 🇧🇷 0-0 🇲🇦 5% 🇧🇷 2-2 🇲🇦 1% 🇧🇷 1-1 🇲🇦 ... 👉 Detailed pre-match statistics and predictions available for ALL MATCHES in our 🕹️ Simulator

🇺🇸 United States cannot complain with their path in the knockout bracket. Of the 28 possible opponents 🇺🇸 have in R32, here are the Top 16 most likely. 🇧🇦 BiH currently leads as the most likely one (D1 v B3 path), but only with 14%. 🇨🇦 Canada follows as the second most likely! 👉 Detailed probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Probability for 3 pts and a -2 GD to be enough for 3rd-placed teams slightly went up after the opening 2 days of the 🌎 World Cup. Now it's at 71%. 👉 Detailed probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS available in our 🕹️ Simulator

With -3 in goal difference after MD1, 🇵🇾 Paraguay find themselves in a precarious situation. It is now likely that they will need 4 pts in remaining two matches v 🇹🇷🇦🇺 to qualify. Qualifying with 3 pts is now unlikely for 🇵🇾 Paraguay (40%). Expected qualifying threshold for 3rd-placed teams is currently at 3 pts and -2 GD. For 🇵🇾 this means a win by at least 2 goals v 🇹🇷/🇦🇺, assuming they lose the other game by 1 goal. 👉 Detailed probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS available in our 🕹️ Simulator