Helping actuaries advance and insurance execs make better decisions. Opinions, not facts.

Joined December 2024
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Agree on the longer timeline. Basic coding is “easy” and discrete. Really easy for AI to take on. Building great code and structures is hard. Software products need to mirror life and life is complicated.
17 Sep 2025
This does feel possible, but on a longer timeline
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The soft market is coming. Greenberg's Q2 earnings statement, "A lot more capital is chasing the property business and prices are softening, while terms and conditions remain steady.....While others are leaning in, we've begun walking away, where necessary."
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Insurance isn’t software.
$LMND Car is one of the fastest AI-software products on earth, and it’s on its way to $1 billion IFP. If they keep executing, the expanded Car platform has a real chance to grow into one of the largest pure AI software consumer products on earth. I get that broad statements like this can sound over the top. But I believe Lemonade will likely reach a billion in Car IFP within the next few years. From there, it’s not hard to imagine them compounding into the tens of billions, maybe even pushing toward $100 billion OVER TIME. They’ll capture share in both the U.S. and Europe. If they capture 15% of both markets, (yes, that is a big ‘if’)- but if they do - they’d have a 100 billion dollar auto product not including any of their other stuff. Everytime I look at this company, the enormous potential screams value at the present. And if they keep growing at 30%, which is what management is guiding into the future, they’ll keep chipping away at this legacy insurance fortress. Keep your eyes on the growth, the trimming down of losses, and cash flow rising - it will tell you a lot.
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forceofmortality retweeted
96M miles of @Waymo safety data just dropped
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Sunlight is the best disinfectant & quarterly reporting brings controls and oversight. Delaying the reporting may delay management's decision to deal with problems, leading to larger scandals.
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In the long-run, it could / should get management to think longer-term, at least in 6 months increments instead of quarterly ones. That helps the American consumer and investor alike.
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This is the opposite of what insurance customers want. Insurance provides real value - no need to make stuff up. @coverager with the call out.
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interacting only at renewals & unforeseen events is the only time your customers want to interact with their insurance company. Being simple & easy with stable premiums and fair & efficient claims process is exactly what customers want.
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Waymo appears to be doing incredible work and advancing the tech in a very responsible way. Personal auto insurers should do than take notice, they should help: 🧵
23 Aug 2025
It seems like there is not enough of a policy response to the fact that, with 57M miles of data, Waymo’s autonomous vehicles experience 85% less serious injuries & 79% less injuries overall than cars with human drivers. 2.4 million are injured & 40k killed in US accidents a year
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Waymo’s biggest risks seem to be: 1. An unsafe competitor enters too quickly and sullies the market 2. Runaway legal costs.
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Increasing testing and performance standards, helped by auto insurers data, in exchange for limiting per event liability, would be a win for waymo & the American public.
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