Watching Nestlé’s management shoot themselves in the foot by explicitly committing to keep increasing dividends in Swiss francs, while their free cash flow available for such payouts is, at best, not growing.
A quote from Nestlé’s CFO on their FY 2023 earnings call: “We are committed to maintaining our practice of increasing the dividend every year in Swiss francs … this will be the company’s 29th consecutive annual dividend increase, in line with our practice of increasing our dividend in Swiss francs.”
Dividend payments are already close to 100% of free cash flow (see chart below), so we can pretty much guess what happens next.
With high probability, management will try sticking with the policy until they no longer can.
The market will force them to admit reality and cut the dividend for the first time in sixty-something years. That will be a big blow to Swiss investors who rely on Nestlé’s “stable” dividend.