I was wondering how hyperliquid’s still keeping the business running through a downtrend, then I saw their operating numbers. yeah, makes a lot more sense now. numbers don’t really lie.

Most people get excited over a few small coin pumps and kinda forget we’ve been in a downtrend. Pretty interesting tbh.

Crypto's current state is a bit shit 1. Market cap is not an indicator of quality - the top 50 is made up of ghost coins or bloated governance slop that has underperformed and is uninvestable 2. The long tail speculative stuff went from high risk high reward to 'some dude in Miami is going to zero this if you hold it for more than 5.9 seconds' 3. Everything is extremely correlated and you can't meaningfully make bets based on sectors as it all converges into a tightly correlated mush, especially to the downside 4. Broad brush alt season is an artefact of the past that's very hard to replicate given (2) and given that there are simply too many coins and the excess of speculation doesn't really happen on centralised exchanges anymore - it's been siphoned off to bundled shit in max PvP settings 5. Crypto reputationally is no longer the sexy frontier of speculation. Institutional bid is in AI, retail speculative bid is in 0DTE equities, single name stocks etc. 6. Convexity has flattened. Even a lot of the historically safe blue chip stuff (BTC, ETH etc.) has underperformed and the historical anchor of 'buy deep drawdowns because all-time highs are guaranteed and explosive' has disappointed. All the shit we used to put up with because of the accessibly massive trend and momentum effects is now harder to justify because those same effects are getting neutered or siphoned off into other arenas. The obvious rebuttal is 'cycles' but even this past cycle is a useful counterpoint: it was extremely concentrated versus broad brush wealth effect, plus something very obviously broke after 10/10. So what does this all mean? 1. In previous cycles, nailing timing was enough and selection was the cherry on top (rising tide lifted all boats). I don't think that holds - both timing and selection matter now and in the future. 2. Participation alone can be an edge if the asset class is early enough and/or mispriced enough. I don't think that holds either, and we might actually have to learn how to trade (fuck). 3. Hopefully I'm an idiot doomposting the bottom GM

those bitcoin etf inflows combined with institutions and even countries stacking up btc have really changed the price history for btc in 2024, and now if that same capital flow dynamic ends up helping it form an early bottom in this downtrend... then what? idk, just my thoughts.

Bitcoin actually topped before the 2024 halving and that's the first time that's ever happened in history. Looks like the btc etf inflows plus all that institutional and nation state accumulation were the main catalyst driving it this time. #BTC

Bitcoin 10/10以来也一直downtrend啦。 $BTC

Michael Burry says "SHORTS ARE NOT FOREVER"

an uncomfortable truth: crypto has been in a downtrend since the 10/10 crash

47M cryptos on the market. I think the downtrend will purge most of the weak projects among them. But the number keeps rising even though many projects are already inactive. Is there any way to know the real number of active cryptos in the market? #cryptocurrency

The crypto community showing up in the bear market:

nobody cares about your story until you win

x.com/web3annie/status/20287… Amazing!

GM! Market is really interesting.

GM!

Most people are scared for more downside after a dump but also scared that these bounces won’t last long and will go down again so they tp too early. People are always scared about everything don’t ask me why. But you can’t even call these pumps. This market is playing with your psychology so you have to stay strong Some alts are going back to previous ath, ETHBTC has been officially going down since 2021 and most alts are forming a potential bottom. The best time to be risk fucking on. I can be wrong on my thesis, but for how long will I be wrong is the question

💥BREAKING NEWS: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve (FED) cuts interest rates by 50bps for the first time in 4 years.