⚾️MLB Picks for Monday, 8/18:
After a much needed, and appreciated, day off yesterday, we are back!
Depending on which stacks you latched onto on Saturday, probably dictated how you did overall. The MIL stacks did not pan out as expected as Littell pitched admirably and did not give up the 1 – 2 HR’s that we are accustomed to seeing him serve up. He did a good job holding down the RED HOT hitting MIL lineup. This caused us to miss on our 1st 5 Innings Over wager on MIL and miss on a few of the 2 HRR bats that we targeted. We did, however, hit the Team over for the game. We had some luck fall our way as we hit that in the 11thinning….. We did have some bad luck fall our way, when MIL PH for Ortiz fairly early in the game. He missed out on two more AB’s and they were late inning AB’s, which was when MIL did most of their hitting and mostly all of their scoring.
If you latched onto the NYM stacks then you did well. All three of them hit fairly early into the game. Same for the AZ/COL stack. With all 3 of them also hitting rather easily.
Overall, we went 15 – 7. Record-wise, that’s solid. However, when we account for the juice connected to most of these wagers, we need to be better to assure a profitable day.
There is no game that we can we really throw into the spotlight today and highlight. There isn’t a ton to like and no game, or team, that looks like an obvious target to hammer away at. Therefore, we are seeing fewer plays, than usual, popping today and no real heavy stacks. Although one game did emerge as good target for a 3 player stack (LAD).
2 HRR (in order for start time):
Harris (ATL)
Witt (KC)
*Ohtani (LAD)
*Betts (LAD)
Hernandez (LAD)
Rengifo (LAA)
Moncado (LAA) – Warning, PH threat vs a Lefty reliever late in the game.
J Ram (CLE)
Kwan (CLE)
Laureano (SDP)
* Since the game is at Coors and COL's pitching is terrible, Ohatni's odds at 2 HRR are -350. Thats rather absurd. Moving this up to 3 HRR is probably the way to go. You may have to go the same with Betts and Hernandez, although those do come with more added risk.
HR, all lines from FD (listed in order of start time):
Harris 480
Ozuna (ATL) 350
Sosa (CHW) 560
Perez (KC) 330
Laureano 390
Machado (SDP) 300
Why?
Harris 2 and HR: .356 L 15 Days with 5 HR in L 59 AB. .444 L 7 Days and .373 in Aug.
Ozuna HR: He has 5 HR in his last 41 AB’s.
Sosa HR: He has 5 HR in his last 51 AB’s.
-There is a minor red flag here for the ATL guys. Gomez is now pitching for his 3rdteam this season. With both the Mets and Dodgers he was strictly a Reliever. He recorded 0 starts across 9 appearances with both teams. However, since coming to CHW he has appeared 3 times in relief and will now be making his second start. In his first start, last week, he pitched a bit of a gem vs DET. 5 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, and 7 K’s. While this is a bit scary, he had shown nothing in his first 12 appearances of the season that incites any sort of fear. His last outing could be an anomaly or perhaps the CHW pitching coaches found something and unlocked it.
Witt 2 HRR: .333 L 15 Days. .429 L 7 Days and .308 in Aug.
Perez HR: He has 2 HR’s in his last 24 AB and we are expected to have wind blowing out to LC. The overwhelming majority of his HRs are to LF and LC. The locations of Leiter’s Four Seam FB, Slider, and Curveball, which make up about 70% of his total pitches thrown, mostly tend to be on the inside part of the plate vs R’s. This aligns well with Perez’s power being heavily weighted towards pulling the ball the wind direction. This also aligns well with Perez’s heatmap for both Power and Contact.
Ohtani 2 HRR: .389 in Aug and 5 HR’s in his last 46 AB and 2 in his last 19 AB..391 L a5 Days. We are backing off of the HR today b/c his HR rate is much lower vs Lefties. However, as you can see from the above, playing him for a HR does make some sense.
Betts 2 HRR: Freeland allows R’s to hit .309 vs him and Betts is hitting .295 over the L 15 Days.
Hernandez 2 HRR: He is finally catching some heat. .310 over the L 7 Days with 2 HR and he is hitting .308 vs L’s this year.
Renfigo 2 HRR: .343 L 15 Days and .308 in Aug. Singer allows L’s to hit about 30 pts better than R’s and his Road ERA is 3.00 higher and his Road OBA is 88 pts higher than his home ERA/OBA.
Moncado 2 HRR: .421 L 15 Days. .500 L 7 Days and .333 in August. He hits 150 pts higher vs R’s and 41 pts higher at Home. Please note: even though he is a switch hitter, he hits L’s poorly and has very few AB’s vs L’s this year. He might get PH for late in the game vs a L.
J Ram 2 : He is 5-9 with a Dbl and a HR vs Gallen. He is hitting .318 with 2 HR’s over the L 7 Days. L’s hit .283 vs Gallen vs only .230 for R’s.
Kwan 2 : He is 4-9 with a Dbl and a Tri vs Gallen. .333 L 7 Days. L’s hit .283 vs Gallen vs only .230 for R’s.
Laureano 2 and HR: .339 in Aug, .375 L 15 Days with 4 HR, and .474 L 7 Days with 3 HR in his Last 19 AB’s. He is 7-12 with 3 Dbl’s and a HR vs Ray. We have a 15% HR Edge and wind blowing out to CF at about 5 mph.
Machado HR: He is hitting HR’s at a rate of 1 per 13.7 AB’s vs L’s this year and he has 3 HR’s in 19 AB’s vs Ray (1/6.3 AB’s). We have a 15% HR Edge and wind blowing out to CF at about 5 mph.