#NHLpicks YTD 72-92 4.84 units
Today seems like a strange day in the NHL, and I feel that there are some very sneaky traps being placed tonight. I will be rolling with four half-unit plays tonight.
𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐬/𝐏𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐬:
First and foremost, I did take the Habs last night and have been agreeing and commenting on posts of everyone who took them throughout the morning until the early afternoon. I want to sincerely apologize, as I am having a change of heart here, and have hedged and gone the other way here.
Logically, the Montreal Canadiens appear to be the right play. The Florida Panthers are coming off a hard-fought game last night and have also lost the last five meetings against Montreal. The Habs seem like an edge in value to anyone who knows hockey, betting, and general critical thinking (sharp approach). However, I think this seems a little too good to be true.
This, to me, screams a type of game where you have to approach it from a standpoint a little in between being sharp and being square. I am not sure what is going on here, but Florida did not have to travel, and I am sure that Paul Maurice has a game plan for their first meeting against Montreal.
The Canadiens had an impressive comeback against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday after dropping 3-0 early, forcing extra time and losing in a shootout, salvaging a point in what should have been a regulation loss. However, their inexperience from being a young team has shown at several points throughout the season. I feel like this will be another case of that, as the Florida Panthers are full of veterans who know how to find ways around many opponent styles.
I just got a feeling that the books aren't gonna let us get an easy one with Montreal here.
PANTHERS ml -122
𝐇𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐬/𝐏𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐧𝐬:
This was a tough one. In my eyes, these two are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum, and I generally find it frustrating to fade the Carolina Hurricanes. However, this is another line that screams too good to be true.
Anyone who believed in the Pittsburgh Penguins during their hot start to the season is now likely seeing them as a bottom-feeder that they were expected to be. They have had a horrible December and are only starting to look okay again lately. They had an eight-game losing streak that covered the entire middle of the month.
On the other hand, Carolina has been pretty par for the course as a regular-season beast, which they have been for nearly a decade now.
However, why are some books bending over with odds in the -120s for the Hurricanes? Is it really that easy?
Something tells me that yesterday's game against the New York Rangers took a lot out of them. Also, Pittsburgh is suddenly seeing the turning of the tide. I understand that their offensive breakout came against the Blackhawks, who have been known for implosions here and there. However, the Penguins can build confidence through games like that and take advantage of a possibly fatigued squad. Also, if Justin Brazeau stays hot and driven, a 6'6 230 lb Winger is the last guy you want to face when you are not fully rested. He alone will cause problems with his presence, and that's before we even get into what Crosby can get his team to do.
I think the Penguins have a few edges today. If they can capitalize on their advantages, it should be a win, even with Stu Skinner in net.
PENGUINS ml 119
𝐃𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐥𝐬/𝐌𝐚𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐟𝐬:
Everyone loves to rag on the Toronto Maple Leafs, and even more so while they are not having a very convincing season. By looking at a lot of Twitter and forum posts, it seems like many of the sharper bettors feel that this is the game where the New Jersey Devils finally get it together with Jack Hughes. After all, Toronto is also dealing with key injuries involving William Nylander and Auston Matthews...so what really do they have left after that, right?
Honestly, though, I feel that the Devils are in pretty bad offensive rhythm, even with Jack Hughes. They can't seem to get too many schemes going lately, and even good defense and goaltending overall in December have not been able to win them many games (4-9 in December).
The Leafs are coached by Craig Berube, who is a hard-style, gritty coach who will focus on defense in a situation where they know they don't have the general offensive skill advantage. I expect Toronto to make life really tough for the Devils Forwards, and rely on opportunities for turnovers or greasy goals to win this one. This is the type of offense that the Devils structure will also not really be ready for. Sheldon Keefe may know his former squad's tendencies, but this will be a Berube adjustment that wins this one in my opinion.
MAPLE LEAFS ml 115
𝐈𝐬𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬/𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐡𝐚𝐰𝐤𝐬:
This is another one that seems way too good to be true.
The Chicago Blackhawks have been seen to be an autofade while Connor Bedard remains out of the lineup. The only problem with all that was that there was absolutely no value in betting on their opponents, unless you went puckline or beyond.
So why do we finally have value in taking the team that is second place in arguably the most competitive division in hockey?
I'm really not sure.
One thing I do know is that Chicago just beat the Dallas Stars on Saturday, so they are more than capable of grinding it out. Despite following up with a poor showing against the Penguins, it did give them hope and confidence after an abysmal December for the most part.
I think this Blackhawks team just needed to believe in their ability in order to start scoring again, but the focus will also be on keeping the puck out of the net today. They have definitely struggled in that aspect.
The New York Islanders are definitely an effective team, but they are still one of those teams that have quite an undefined identity, but find many creative ways to win...especially against top teams or rivals. Last game against CBJ was one of bad vibes, with them taking a 4-2 loss and being a little distracted by extracurriculars involving two of their Stars.
I expect the Isles to take this one for granted a little bit, as this is their third game in four nights and they are probably looking for less drama. Little might be on their mind that Chicago should be motivated from a few different angles on this one.
BLACKHAWKS ml 120
I hope I don't regret not going full units on these, but it is probably smart to play it cautiously after coming off two losing days.
Hopefully, the Animal team gets it done again like last time