My basecase for quite a while now has been a Jordan Bardella presidency
Not just because he regularly beats centrists as below
But also because I'm not even sure centrists will reach the runoff. The space is crowded, the Macron presidency will be hard to dissociate from.
The Melenchon train will pick up speed as it always does in presidential elections and soft left voters will be tempted to vote tactically. Melenchon has no shot at winning the runoff against virtually anyone.
A lot can happen in a year "for sure", but it will take a major shakeup to stop Bardella.
Poll for the second round of the presidential election :
J. Bardella (RN) : 52% ✅
É. Philippe (HOR) : 48%