John Helin of Black Birdgroup writes that in connection with the recent advance of Russian troops in the south of Donetsk region, two dangerous directions have appeared.
x.com/J_JHelin/status/187100…
Yes, in Velyka Novoselka and Kurakhovo, Ukrainian supply routes are under threat.
General situation
ℹ️ Although the pace of advance of Russian troops slowed down in December, they continue to advance in the south of Donetsk region. Dark red shows the situation in early December, light red - the advance of Russian troops.
ℹ️ The most difficult situation has developed around the Kurakhovo salient, where the Russians are advancing on both the northern and southern flanks. The situation here is especially dangerous for Ukraine due to the limited logistical routes. Here the terrain is sandwiched by the Vovcha and Sukhoi Yaly rivers with a single main road and one bridge leading to Kurakhovo. The Russians are approaching this road from both the north and south near Ulakli and Dachnoye respectively.
ℹ️ Ukrainian channels are already talking about Russian FPV strikes and "fire control" over the main road. Whatever the case, Ukrainian forces on the Kurakhovo salient are now under clear threat of encirclement.
ℹ️ Another pocket is forming southwest of Kurakhovo around Velyka Novoselka. Here the Russians have advanced west of the Mokri Yaly river and east of the city, approaching its supply routes. The Russians have also cut the northern access road in the village of Novyi Komar and are approaching the last road to the city west of Vremivka.
ℹ️ They also recently blew up bridges across the Mokry Yaly River. This effectively cuts off Velika Novoselka from the villages of Vrem'ivka and Neskuchne and the rest of the Ukrainian-controlled territories. The city's life support will be provided by improvised means across the river.
In conclusion.
The threat to the main logistical routes in both Kurakhove and Velika Novoselka will be a challenge for the Ukrainians. Even with complicated logistics, the infantry can be supported by drones. There is still the possibility of withdrawing across the fields, although this is already dangerous. However, if the Russians advance enough to force the Defense Forces to withdraw from these pockets, the December weather and Russian drones make the evacuation of heavy equipment an extremely difficult task.
With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick thread on the situation in South Donetsk. 1/
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