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Unimpressive crypto rebound
August 21/22, 2025
Market Overview
The crypto market capitalisation has added 1% over the past 24 hours, reaching $3.86 trillion, but this can hardly be called the beginning of a recovery. Yesterday looks more like a small bounce on the way down. The technology sector in traditional financial markets remains under pressure, dampening the mood of cryptocurrency buyers.
Bitcoin is trading at $113.7k, with an unsuccessful attempt to return above $115K only highlighting the market's weakness and reinforcing the role of the 50-day moving average as a key local resistance. Market participants remain hopeful that Powell will soften his tone on Friday but remain cautious beforehand.
News Background
According to SoSoValue, net outflows from BTC ETFs jumped to $523.3 million on August 19, while the net outflow from the ETH-ETF amounted to $429.7 million. The negative trend continues for the third trading session after a week of net inflows.
Kronos Research explains the decline in cryptocurrencies as being caused by profit-taking and the liquidation of leveraged positions after BTC's historic high in August.
News of a US SEC investigation into Alt5 Sigma intensified pressure on the crypto market. Alt5 Sigma entered a $1.5 billion deal with World Liberty Financial, which is linked to US President Donald Trump.
Ethereum's on-chain metrics are exacerbating the situation. The number of active addresses has fallen 28% from its peak on July 30.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, market participants are more actively hedging their risks in the derivatives market. The delta skew of 30-day Bitcoin options reached 12%, a four-month high.
According to Bitwise, the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in US pension plans could push Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of the year. This event could prove to be more significant than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The first inflows from pension funds could begin as early as this autumn. (FxPro)
News
August 22, 2025
The tedious seesaw for gold is about to end
Gold's hopes for an aggressive cut in the Fed's federal funds rate, the associated decline in Treasury bond yields, and the weakening of the US dollar have not yet materialised. The Fed is likely to ease monetary policy in September. However, it may then pause again. Its slowness is bringing investors' interest back to the greenback.
Clouds are gathering over the precious metal due to Donald Trump's efforts to end the armed conflict in Ukraine. The start of hostilities, followed by the West's freezing of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves, was the starting point for the Gold’s rally. Since February 2022, gold has risen 1.7x and reached a record high of more than $3,500 per ounce in April. The rally was driven by de-dollarisation, active buying of bullion by central banks, and increased demand for ETFs.
In the second quarter, central bank activity in the precious metals market declined significantly, and capital flows into specialised exchange-traded funds slowed. Without these advantages, XAUUSD can forget about recovering the upward trend. However, the favourable external background in the form of monetary stimulus from the Fed, lower Treasury yields, and a weaker US dollar in the medium term will give gold a boost.
The gold chart clearly shows consolidation since April, with the price right in the middle of the 12% range from peak to correction lows. This tedious five-month movement to the right is likely to end in the coming weeks, as August often marks the start of major trends in gold. The duration of consolidation is often directly proportional to the strength of the breakout.
From a technical analysis perspective, given the accumulated overbought condition, the downside potential is huge – up to $3000 or even $2200 per ounce. However, the upside potential is no less impressive: $4600 in an extreme bullish scenario, including the Fed switching to a mode of absolute softness. (FxPro)
News
The dollar finds its footing, but the Fed holds the cards
The US dollar has shaken off its fears and gone on the counterattack. The Fed is still dependent on data. It does not allow for a 50 basis-point cut in the federal funds rate in September and a 150–175 basis points cut in the cycle. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted these figures as possible outcomes based on economic models but stressed that he was not directing the Fed to act. Foreign investors are reducing their hedging of risks associated with owning US assets. Other countries continue to buy US Treasury bonds. Is the USD index oversold?
Ahead of Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, speculators were unwinding their short positions on the US currency. This resulted in a pullback in the USD index. Donald Trump was able to stop it for a while. The US president called on FOMC member Lisa Cook to resign for alleged mortgage fraud. The White House is intent on filling the Committee with its own people, turning the central bank into a puppet and aggressively lowering rates. The erosion of confidence in the Fed is a bearish factor for the dollar.
A separate factor is expectations for the key rate, where investors have reduced the chances of a 25-point rate cut to 73%. This is a significant fundamental driver of the dollar's growth over the past week and a half, when dovish expectations peaked: markets priced in a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 6% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.
The dollar index is comfortably above its 50-day moving average, reflecting a shift in sentiment to bullish after a period of decline. However, early speculation is risky until Powell has had his say, confirming or refuting the expectation of a rate cut in September and, in general, a transition to active easing with three cuts before the end of the year. (FxPro)
News
July 21, 2025
Surprise from Flash PMI in the eurozone allowed the euro to continue its fight
According to preliminary PMI estimates, the Eurozone industry moved from contraction to growth in August for the first time in more than two years.
The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, entering growth territory for the first time since June 2022, after it was 48.8 a month earlier. The data contradicted the expected decline to 49.6, indicating a more stable state of the economy.
The services activity index fell from 51.0 to 50.7. This level is also the average value for the indicator over the past year, hovering around it all this time. Improvements in industry have been the main contributor to the positive dynamics of the composite PMI in recent months. However, these data are somewhat at odds with foreign trade statistics and industrial production and order data in Germany.
Among individual countries, France's 31-month high in manufacturing PMI and Germany's 38-month high deserve attention.
Historically, PMI indicators have been a good leading indicator for financial markets, so it is not surprising that the EURUSD rose by 0.3% as publications for individual eurozone countries were released after two attempts to push the price down to intraday lows near 1.1625 on Wednesday and Thursday.
The data release supported the EURUSD recovery above the 50-day moving average, around which bulls and bears have been tugging since early August. The currency market is fully focused on signals from Powell on Friday, ignoring other data. EURUSD will likely spend most of this anticipation near 1.1650. (FxPro)
News
August 22, 2025
Ethereum Hits $4,880 Peak Amid Rate Cut Rally
On August 22, 2025, Ethereum surged to a new all-time high of $4,880, ending a nearly four-year drought amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and robust institutional investments. This milestone boosted the crypto market's total capitalization past $4 trillion, driven by factors like staking yields, U.S. ETFs absorbing $12.7 billion in August, and ecosystem upgrades such as the upcoming Pectra hard fork. Social media erupted with celebrations from figures like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, predicting further gains and potential altcoin dominance. (Grok)
News
Ripple Wins: Court Dismisses SEC Appeals on XRP
On August 22, 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit dismissed all appeals in the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple Labs, ending a four-year legal battle that began in December 2020. Ripple executives Bradley Garlinghouse and Christian Larsen were accused of raising over $1.3 billion through unregistered XRP sales, resulting in a $125 million penalty. This victory clarifies that XRP is not a security in secondary markets, signaling a potential shift in crypto regulation and paving the way for broader adoption and innovation. (Grok)
News
Trump Seizes 10% of Intel in Tech Supremacy Push
President Donald Trump announced a landmark deal where the U.S. government acquired a 10% equity stake in Intel, valued at $10 billion, through negotiations with CEO Lip-Bu Tan. This move, facilitated by the CHIPS Act, aims to boost domestic semiconductor production, enhance national security, and counter foreign competition like Taiwan's TSMC. Intel shares surged 6% amid market optimism, though critics decried it as government overreach, sparking economic debates. (Grok)
News
Best Quotes Of The Day
Cryptocurrency
“Bitcoin is a tool for freeing humanity from oligarchs and tyrants, dressed up as a get-rich-quick scheme.” – Naval Ravikant, former CEO of AngelList
"The crypto and blockchain model is most impressive. XRP has provided us with substantial return on investment" - Greg Tingle, Media Man Group
“We have elected to put our money and faith in a mathematical framework that is free of politics and human error.“ – Tyler Winklevoss, co-CEO of Gemini
"You can't stop things like Bitcoin. It will be everywhere, and the world will have to readjust. World governments will have to readjust." —John McAfee, Founder of McAfee Associates
“There are 3 eras of currency: Commodity based, politically based, and now, math-based.“ – Chris Dixon, Venture Capitalist at Andreesen Horowitz
“As the value goes up, heads start to swivel and skeptics begin to soften. Starting a new currency is easy, anyone can do it. The trick is getting people to accept it because it is their use that gives the “money” value.“ - Adam B. Levine, CEO of Tokenly
“Trading Bitcoin is like trading Apple, Amazon, Google, or Facebook a decade ago. The more you obsess over timing the market, the more mistakes you make. They were all technology networks that were dominant & destined to grow.” - Michael Saylor, Former CEO of MicroStrategy
"Whereas most technologies tend to automate workers on the periphery doing menial tasks, blockchains automate away the center. Instead of putting the taxi driver out of a job, blockchain puts Uber out of a job and lets the taxi drivers work with the customer directly." - Vitalik Buterin, Co-Founder of Ethereum
"The Latin American countries where you have this combination of inflation or hyperinflation cycles – deflation as well – and then you have very high friction for financial transactions, a high percentage of people who are unbanked, cryptocurrencies make total sense." – Fred Thiel, CEO of Thiel Advisors & Marathon Digital Holdings
“…we know gold is a $12 trillion asset, bitcoin’s about a 10th of gold. Could they be half of gold? At one point, Sure, it could … And at some point, it will be larger than gold… that money is finding its way to Gen Z and Millennials, and they feel much more comfortable with digital gold than old clunky gold.” - Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital
“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.” - Satoshi Nakomoto, Founder of Bitcoin
News
Cryptos Today: (Near Live)
Bitcoin $114,870.49 USD 1.56%
Ethereum $4,712.85 USD 9.44%
XRP $3.04 USD 5.99%
Tether $0.9915 USD -0.84%
BNB $881.93 USD 3.83%
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