Black won Juno. CSFN was the Fulmer show. Fairly unassailable, in my opinion, having been in the room for both, and on stage right before the latter.
Results have varied since, with Elliott finding her groove and more of her natural comportment, Milobar upping his energy, and some strong, pugilistic moments from KLF.
Alright serious take on all the debates and campaigns
Over the 4 debates, I think Yuri did overall the best even if tonight was his worst night. He showed strong charisma and good lines. He also made an effort to differentiate himself on some policies (whether you like what he offers is another question). I thought he clearly won the CSFN debate for instance. I think he and his campaign made the right move many times over the last few months. It's a team that clearly knows what it takes to win a leadership race in BC. I'm not saying he's favorite, far from it, but it's a well executed campaign with a good candidate (even if I don't buy most of what he offers, I think Yuri is just good at changing and saying what he needs to, whether in politics or in the business world). Probably THE wild card of this race.
Elliott has been fine overall. Obviously she missed the Juno debate, which was a mistake. I think she lost the CSFN debate but did good at the last two debates. Like tonight she wasn't amazing but she was fine. She's the frontrunner too so you approach those debates differently when you are. She isn't super charismatic but she can hold her own while speaking. She likely needs to work on being more likeable. Even tonight, while being a sharp improvement over her perf at the CSFN debate, she still had a few moments where she came off condescending (and yes I do think we tend to judge women slightly differently when it comes to this - Look at me I'm woke). Beyond the debates, she is obviously running a good campaign. There is too much talent behind her for her campaign to suck. However she hasn't run an amazing campaign. As far as I'm concerned, she isn't my number one choice but I'll gladly vote for her if she is the leader during the next election. I do not understand people who think she's the worst or the best. She is good (very good on DRIPA). She isn't the next Mulroney but she also isn't a weakass BC Lib like Wilkinson.
Milobar did well at the ICBA 'debate' and was also pretty good tonight. Much better than during the CSFN debate. He has obviously decided that he wasn't gonna change himself fully and say what he needed to say in order to win this race. So I respect this. But yeah, he's not winning this thing and I'm fairly convinced he's currently last. He tried hard to go after Black tonight as he knows that his only chance is to win the "primary of the centrist" if he has any hope of going further with second ballots. I respect Peter more now than before the race started but I still do not want him as leader of this party.
KLF won tonight. And this is killing me to admit. Seriously, she was dead in the water 3 months ago and now she might well be the favorite. She has improved a lot and tonight showed it. She is running as the centrist option in this race, the 'true conservative without doing a deal with OneBC' if you prefer. I think it'll attract a LOT of people. Her main challenge will be to get her voters out, especially with the verification process. I suspect her and Fulmer have a lot of overlapping support.
Finally Black, who I'll still rank as number 1 on my ballot. If I'm being honest, I don't think Iain did particularly well in those debates. The Juno one was the best. I think his style is more suited for short speeches in front of a small audience or 1:1. As Milobar, I also feel he hasn't been willing enough to talk about cultural/social issues (but when he did he usually had a good position). He's clearly the strongest on the economy and I genuinely believe he's the most electable of the 5 in a general election. he'd likely win the centrist vote without putting OneBC at 15%.
Polls have shown that none of these 5 candidates have a 'rock star' status or massive impact on the polls. They all have similar favorability numbers and poll similarly (BC is a province where, outside of 2020, the Left and Right are always close anyway).
I think Elliott is still the favorite but KLF could represent a real challenge. Iain Black as well if he manages to get a lot of the voters of Milobar from the Interior. As for Yuri, well, he'll either surprise everyone and be top 2 after the first round or he'll fail miserably and finish last. I still expect all 5 candidates to be between 10 and 30%, although the crazily low verification numbers could create weird results.