Appreciate the thoughtful pushback.
1) Why does the landscape feel “obscure”
Most of the dozens of companies are still clustered around the same approaches: mechanical, pyrolysis, and other thermal pathways. They’re competing for the same “easy” feedstock (sorted, cleaner streams), and globally, only ~9% of plastic waste is actually recycled today. That scarcity is precisely why the economics are complex: capex-heavy centralized plants, high opex, contamination, and expensive logistics.
2) “Can these businesses exist without mandates?”
Some can, but it’s very cyclical (virgin resin pricing and feedstock costs swing margins). The key change is that mandates are no longer theoretical they’re becoming the demand floor:
• EU requires 25% recycled content in PET beverage bottles from 2025 and 30% in all plastic beverage bottles from 2030.
• California requires 25% recycled plastic in 2025 and 50% by 2030.
3) “If Aduro is revolutionary, why no strategic partner?”
Two reasons:
• Aduro hasn’t given away exclusivity; they’re preserving optionality and independence (insider ownership is reported in the mid-30% range).
• The petrochemical world is conservative, and many players have spent big on pyrolysis with mixed results. They typically want to see continuous pilot semi-commercial/demo performance before signing meaningful licensing/JV structures.
Also: Aduro isn’t “alone in the dark”; they graduated Shell GameChanger and have an active collaboration track with TotalEnergies, they are in collaboration with Cleanfarms, GF Buildings, ECOCE, Siemens, and they have another 3-4 paying clients through their CEP program in addition to over 10 multi-billion dollar players across various industries (including waste management companies). As NGP data the 2027 demo milestone land, the partner conversation changes fast. Some might act faster given the new regulations, but my base-case model assumes a post-demo/semi-commercial unit for that to happen. Meanwhile, there are lots of other interesting developments that could unfold under the HPU as well as the other verticals