A powerful El Niño Event is expected to develop during 2026. How powerful? Well the seasonal forecasting models are currently all over the place. So, somewhere between a Top 10 event in modern history and super-bonkers extreme crazy land. 🤔

Next study that we trigger a massive runway warming just now as we will reach 2°C of mean warming around 2030... But its not visible in models but in all these mechanistic/observational studies on how systems will behave if studied more closely... "Permafrost carbon vulnerability, particularly concerning temperature thresholds and old carbon mobilization, remains a critical uncertainty in climate projections. Through a five-year, multi-level warming experiment on the Tibetan Plateau, we investigate these dynamics using >40,000 hourly flux measurements combined with vertical CO2 concentration and δ13C-CO2 profiling. Here we demonstrate under low-to-moderate warming (<2 °C), respiratory carbon loss (Reco) increments exceed photosynthetic carbon uptake (GPP) gains by 1–16 fold, driving a quantitative shift toward ecosystem carbon source. Extreme warming (2−4 °C) triggers a surge in growing-season deep carbon loss to 59% Reco, while GPP declines precipitously. The decoupling between Reco and GPP drives a qualitative transition to strong carbon source, implying the existence of a tipping point within 2−4 °C. Projected to end-of-century warming levels (2.69 °C) across Tibetan permafrost regions, this could release 24−47 g CO2 m−2 yr−1 old carbon. These findings establish quantitative thresholds for permafrost carbon vulnerability and inform carbon-climate feedback projections in global cold regions." nature.com/articles/s41467-0…

We reach net zero and all will be nice and well is increasingly being proven wrong by recent papers Here another one - cloud feedbacks would remain, along with ocean warming for a long time, while GHGs would slowly decline. The problem is, that GHG levels slowly decrease while clouds would continue to decline ocean heat uptake rates could even go up as clouds determine how much heat enters the oceans. If we add recent estimates from e.g. thawing permafrost soils, even continued increases in GHG levels despite us having reached zero emissions become increasingly likely. If we assume that recent ocean heat uptake rates are way too high already continued ocean warming would further intensify upper ocean stratification which then would backfire on marine heatwaves and ocean heat uptake shifting to shallower depths which could also cause clouds further to decline... Here what they write: Climate mitigation strategies have been proposed to halt and potentially reverse global warming trends by the mid-twenty-first century. Previous studies have shown different aspects of climate irreversibility at regional or global scales, but the roles of clouds and atmospheric radiation remain elusive. Using the fully coupled NCAR Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), we examine climate reversibility in a scenario where the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration gradually increases starting in 2015 (∼400 ppm) until 2075 (∼800 ppm) and then decreases back to the 2015 level. We find that the lowest reversibility of surface temperature occurs in the Southern Hemisphere mid–high latitudes. In addition to the slow ocean response, profound cloud–radiation feedbacks are identified in this study, which contribute to regional temperature irreversibility. Cloud properties and radiative effects show the lowest reversibility over 30°–45° and 60°–75°S. The strong inertia of the Southern Ocean circulations and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) jointly induce hemispheric surface temperature asymmetry on a 60-yr time scale, leading to a southward shift of the Hadley cell with a narrowed subsidence branch and a persistent moisture divergence over 30°–45°S during the removal of CO2. The resultant humidity reduction decreases low-level cloud fraction and liquid water path, contributing to anomalous shortwave radiation that suppresses local temperature recovery. Moreover, subpolar clouds in the Southern Hemisphere are closely connected with Antarctic sea ice which exhibits substantial irreversibility following the Southern Ocean circulation responses. Our findings demonstrate that coupled ocean–atmosphere processes involving cloud and radiation feedbacks collectively determine climate reversibility and shape regional climate change patterns. "Surface Temperature Reversibility and the Roles of Clouds on the Decadal Time Scale"; h/t Jan Umsonst journals.ametsoc.org/view/jo…

Snowpack is nose-diving across the west right now. The Upper Colorado-Dirty Devil Basin has half as much snowpack as it's previous daily record LOW for March 21st. To say it is bad is an understatement.

Another month of NASA CERES satellite data and it's only getting worse! Another 0.11 W/m² added to the 4-year average Net-flux increase over the North Pacific. The level of Absorbed Solar Radiation is almost 5 W/m² higher than the start of this century.

Planet-heating methane is escaping from cracks in the Antarctic seabed as the region warms, with new seeps being discovered at an “astonishing rate,” scientists have found, raising fears that future global warming predictions may have been underestimated. cnn.it/4h5g0gb

Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment Nerilie J. Abram, Ariaan Purich et al. 20AUG2025 nature.com/articles/s41586-0… PDF nature.com/articles/s41586-0… Abstract Human-caused climate change worsens with every increment of additional warming, although some impacts can develop abruptly. The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than the anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. The tipping point for unstoppable ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be exceeded even under best-case CO2 emission reduction pathways, potentially initiating global tipping cascades. Regime shifts are occurring in Antarctic and Southern Ocean biological systems through habitat transformation or exceedance of physiological thresholds, and compounding breeding failures are increasing extinction risk. Amplifying feedbacks are common between these abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment, and stabilizing Earth’s climate with minimal overshoot of 1.5 °C will be imperative alongside global adaptation measures to minimise and prepare for the far-reaching impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean abrupt changes. a, Antarctic sea-ice extent anomalies in satellite observations relative to 1981–2010 monthly mean climatology. Open circles indicate monthly anomalies in excess of ±2σ and filled circles indicate those in excess of ±3σ. b, Median (blue line) monthly anomalies and interquartile range (grey lines) in the sea-ice edge compiled for the maximum northerly extent in 2° longitudinal sectors around Antarctica, calculated relative to 1981–2010 monthly median. In 2023 the median sea-ice edge around Antarctica had contracted 61 km southward relative to 1981–2010 conditions, and the sea-ice edge distribution was significantly different (P < 0.01; Wilcoxon rank sum test) from any previous year since satellite observations began. c, Map showing sea-ice extent for July 2023 (red line) relative to 1981–2010 July median (blue line). Red (grey) shading shows regions where the sea-ice edge in July 2023 was farther South (North) than the 1981–2010 median. d, Historical context of Antarctic sea-ice extent seasonal anomalies from an observation-based reconstruction21 (red; Methods), shown alongside satellite-derived sea-ice extent (blue). Thick, dark curves show 7-year LOESS filters of the seasonal data, and dashed red line shows the reconstructed twentieth century linear trend (0.43 ± 0.06 million km2 decline from 1905 to 1999). Datasets plotted relative to their 1981–2010 mean, and grey shading shows ±3σ range of observed seasonal sea-ice extent anomalies over 1981–2010. Out of the 464 seasons in the 1905–2020 ‘best-fit’ sea-ice reconstruction (shown), only 3 exceeded the 3σ level of observed 1981–2010 climatology, and none fell below −3σ. Across all reconstruction members21, only 16 of the 3,480 seasons fall below −3σ (Methods). For comparison, 7 out of 8 seasons since summer 2022/23 have been below −3σ, and winter of 2023 was below –6σ. e, Moving seven-year standard deviation of seasonal sea-ice observations (blue) and reconstruction (red), plotted at the final season of each seven-year window.

“Each increment of regional time-averaged warming increases the characteristic duration scale of long heatwaves more than the previous increment.”

So, to convey just how improbable 11 standard deviation excursions are, if there were no climate disruption and the variation were purely random (normally distributed), the odds of this would be smaller than the volume fraction of a literal drop in the literal world ocean. Congratulations everyone, we did it. 🤦‍♂️😭 #ClimateDisruption x.com/i/grok/share/ac47ot4Xl…

The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years. Check out the full update: bit.ly/43ySTEm

Increasing whale, dolphin deaths linked to toxic algae in Southern California ktla.com/news/local-news/inc…