bah oui, ça été même fackchecker par Libé en mode damage control, vous étiez trop confiné pour suivre l’actualité ? 🤷🏻♂️Tout ceux qui ont suivi le scandale le savent et comme d’hab y a des sources publiques, Google est votre ami, mots clés : » Niel Ferguson Imperial college projection covid », vous trouverez les articles de presse et sa pseudo science
Et c’est justement leur erreur classique : en exagérant trop les chiffres inutilement pour faire peur, ils suscitent le doute, 500’000 morts juste pour les UK ça veut dire des cadavres qui flottent dans la Tamise et les lacs, des millions de morts autour du globe, c’est pas street credible 🤦🏼
« Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist at Imperial College London, played a significant role in shaping the UK's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. His team's computer models simulated the rapid spread of the coronavirus and predicted various outcomes.
Initial Projections
In March 2020, Ferguson's team published a report predicting a worst-case scenario of 510,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the US if no action was taken to suppress the virus. These projections were widely reported and influenced government decisions, including the UK's lockdown.
Subsequent Adjustments
As the pandemic unfolded, Ferguson's team updated their models, and the predicted death toll decreased significantly. This was due to the UK's aggressive containment strategy and expanded intensive-care capacity. By the end of March 2020, Ferguson stated that the actual death toll would likely be much lower than initially projected.
Criticism and Controversy
Ferguson's predictions have been subject to criticism and scrutiny. Some have questioned the accuracy of his initial projections, pointing out that he has a history of overpredicting deaths by a wide margin. A fact-checking report found that Ferguson's predictions for previous public health scares, such as bird flu, BSE, and foot and mouth disease, were also inaccurate.
Independent Verification
An Edinburgh University analysis replicated Imperial College's Report 9 COVID-19 modeling, confirming the robustness and reproducibility of Ferguson's team's conclusions. Additionally, a Cambridge-led Codecheck verified the quality and reproducibility of the underlying code used in Imperial College's CovidSim.
Key Takeaways
1. Neil Ferguson's initial COVID-19 projections predicted a worst-case scenario of 510,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the US.
2. Subsequent updates to his models and the UK's response led to a significant decrease in predicted death tolls.
3. Ferguson's predictions have been subject to criticism and scrutiny, with some questioning their accuracy.
4. Independent verification of Imperial College's modeling and code has provided further confirmation of Ferguson's team's conclusions.
liberation.fr/checknews/2020…