The Truth About The “Hard Truth” About Conservatives
In a post titled “Hard truth about conservatives leaving the church, according to social science,” Jasmin Rappleye cites a new BYU study to suggest conservatives are quietly finding a pathway out of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
The study does not say that.
Jasmin begins: “A lot of people have assumed that being politically liberal or progressive was the fastest pathway out of the Church, but new data has shown that we’ve been missing a pretty big piece of the puzzle.”
That framing sets an expectation. If liberals were presumed to leave fastest, we are about to see evidence that conservatives are leaving at comparable or alarming rates.
But the BYU paper, Latter-day Saint Religiousness, Well-Being, and Retention in the United States does not identify any specific ideology, liberal or conservative, as the “fastest pathway” out.
It reports that political identification and feeling troubled by the Church’s political stances correlate with higher rates of deidentification.
That is not the same as demonstrating a conservative exodus.
Next, Jasmin states: “One of the top predictors of leaving the Church is if your political identity is more important than your religious one.”
The study does not measure a hierarchy in which political identity “outranks” religious identity.
What it reports is this: among youth who felt “very concerned or troubled” by the Church’s stance on social or political issues, 28% disidentified over a four-year period.
It also reports that not feeling God’s presence daily was a powerful predictor of leaving.
Those are measurable variables. “Political identity being more important than religious identity” is not one of them.
That hierarchy is an interpretive layer added after the fact.
Jasmin continues: “And this is true for both the left and the right… conservatives and Republicans… align more strongly with their political party than with the church.”
Again, the paper does not document a “quiet disaffection” among conservatives.
It finds that political ideology differentiates groups of those who leave. It finds that youth troubled by the Church’s political positions are more likely to deidentify.
It does not present data showing conservatives leaving in significant numbers because they prioritize party over prophet.
There is a difference between feeling tension with institutional stances and loving a political party more than the gospel.
The study measures the first. The video implies the second.
Finally, Jasmin advises: “If you find yourself agreeing more often with what your favorite political pundit or influencer says over what the prophet says, that’s a great reminder to reprioritize our identity.”
This is spiritual counsel, not a finding from the study.
The BYU research is descriptive. It reports correlations in survey data. It does not prescribe moral hierarchies or diagnose members as subordinating religious identity to partisan identity.
When apologists overstate what the data shows, it erodes trust. The paper’s strongest finding is not about conservatives. It is about formation.
Those who reported feeling God’s presence daily were dramatically less likely to leave. Political discomfort was one factor among several.
Reducing that complexity to a headline about conservatives who “prioritize politics” flattens a deeply personal and often painful process into a caricature.
According to the study, retention has fallen from 82% in the 1980s to roughly half today.
That is serious and deserves serious engagement.
But, if we are going to invoke social science inside the household of faith, we should do so carefully, and not try to use it to frame members leaving for reasons the data does not support.
The data says what it says.
We do not strengthen the Church by implying it’s saying something that it doesn’t.
Note: I deleted an earlier version of this post to correct some inaccuracies.
Hard truth about conservatives leaving the church, according to social science.
A lot of people have assumed that being politically liberal or progressive was the fastest pathway out of the church, but new data shows that we’ve been missing a piece to the puzzle.